THE Committee for the Defence of the Iranian People’s Rights (Codir), Britain’s longest-established organisation for solidarity with the Iranian people, founded in 1981, is deeply alarmed by the rapid escalation of the military conflict between the United States and Iran which has resulted in the heavy bombardment of sites across Iran, particularly concentrated across the country’s south and Persian Gulf islands, for nine consecutive days and counting.

During this time, we along with the long-suffering people of Iran have borne witness to the deliberate, systematic, and wanton targeting of critical civilian infrastructure by US forces, which constitute flagrant war crimes, inflicted upon what are already some of Iran’s most disadvantaged and impoverished locales and their populations.  

The ferocity of these continued attacks, with US President Donald Trump once more threatening to target Iran’s power plants and bridges over coming days, has led to fevered but credible speculation inside Iran that these measures may be aimed at clearing the way for a possible ground incursion in the country’s south.

The following information has been translated from a report on Sunday by the Persian-language Zeitoon (Olive) reformist news and analysis website.

As the US continues to heavily bombard targets along Iran’s southern coast and islands, a number of Iranian political and military officials have warned of the grave possibility that the war could rapidly escalate into a ground offensive; although no US official has yet publicly announced a decision to carry out such an operation.

The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) corporation has extensively discussed the possibility of the US attempting to carry out a limited ground operation, especially on the southern coasts and islands near to the Strait of Hormuz, in its roundtable discussions and analytical programmes with military and security experts over recent days.

The frequent raising of this issue in the official media of the Islamic Republic, at the same time as the US intensifies its attacks on southern Iran, has drawn the attention of Iran analysts and observers both in and out of the country and is being taken very seriously.

In the most recent development, Mohammad Javad Zarif, former Iranian foreign minister, wrote in a message directly addressed to Donald Trump: “Read history and learn from Saddam’s failed aggression.”  

Referring to the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88, he warned that any military action against Iran would result in a similar fate for aggressors against the nation.

At the same time, Heshmatollah Maliki, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Majlis (Iranian parliament), said in an interview with the state-backed Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) that “the US ground attack scenario has already been extensively tested and shown to fail.”  

He added that the Islamic Republic has not yet “unveiled its comprehensive operation with the most destructive weapons [in its armoury]” and alluded to other options it has should the war spread.

Previously, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, former head of the National Security Commission of the Majlis, had warned that the focus of attacks on southern Iran could be a precursor move to seizing or controlling some strategic areas adjacent to the Persian Gulf, including islands and sea routes.  

He emphasised that such a scenario requires the full preparation and battle-readiness of Iranian forces.

Ahmad Bakhshish Ardestani, another member of the Majlis National Security Commission, also pointed to the possibility of expanding the scope of the war and said that no scenario, including a limited ground attack, should be considered remote or otherwise implausible.

Meanwhile, regional media have also raised this possibility. Al Jazeera, in an analysis of developments over the past seven days of the war, wrote that the US attacks on the southern coasts and islands of Iran could indeed be a prelude to a limited ground operation in the Strait of Hormuz region. 

According to the network, Tehran is considering options to counter such a scenario, including expanding the parameters of the war and targeting US economic interests in the region.

However, it is important to note that at this stage no US official has officially spoken of plans for a ground attack or invasion of Iranian territory, and the assessments and concerns detailed above have largely been based on an analysis of the pattern of recent attacks by the US as well as statements from Iranian military and security officials.

Iran has formally accused the US of committing war crimes while independent human rights organisations and international law experts — including over 100 from the US — have also warned that the US-led campaign has consistently involved actions and open rhetoric that may constitute grave and severe violations of both the UN Charter and international humanitarian law.

Codir once more makes clear its steadfast and unequivocal opposition to this illegal war — one that was launched while Iran was sat at the negotiating table — and cannot emphasise enough the catastrophic effects of a return to all-out war and occupation of any part of Iran’s sovereign territory on the country, the wider Middle East, and world peace and stability for many years to come. It is a scenario that must be resisted at all costs.  

To this end, we urgently call upon all progressive forces concerned with peace and justice internationally to redouble their efforts to effectively campaign against the renewal of war on Iran and bring pressure to bear on the new administration at Downing Street to completely distance its own position from Trump’s criminal and disastrous folly, as well as insist upon a return to bona fide negotiations and diplomacy and an adherence to international law.  

The alternative truly does not bear thinking about.