A WEEK away from Britain’s latest “make or break” by-election, the question people in Clacton and beyond are asking is, can the Bin really win?

Nigel Farage must think so. The Reform UK leader, who triggered this contest by resigning and restanding as the MP to delay Parliament’s probe into his dodgy donations, sent a video message to supporters a week ago begging them: “Please come to Clacton!”

Clearly freaked out that his top rival, comedy writer Jon Harvey – standing as his masked alter ego Count Binface – has captured the public’s imagination, Farage pleaded: “We need a lot more people to come here … to build up a massive, impressive level of data,” adding: “On the day, we’re going to need an army of people to turn out the vote.”

From this, it’s obvious he doesn’t know where his own votes are, despite holding the seat for the past two years, and he’s worried the tide has turned in this left-behind coastal constituency.

National polling by Ipsos a month ago shows more people would prefer a Binface victory over Farage – 33 to 21 per cent, with the rest unsure or wanting neither to win. But locally, Survation’s new poll of probable voters suggests that, in a head-to-head contest between the two, 55 per cent favour Farage while just 27 per cent back Binface.

Farage is right that turn-out will be key to victory. Reform is copying Labour’s classic Get Out The Vote (GOTV) strategy of identifying “promises” – people who say they’ll vote for you – in the lead-up to an election, and then knocking on their doors again and again all day until you know they’ve gone to the polling station.

But while well-run GTOV operation with lots of volunteers on the day can often give parties an edge in a tight race, it can’t change the underlying political realities, as Labour learned to its cost at the May local elections.

Reform reportedly pulled its Manchester mayoral campaigners out early in a scramble to shore up its seaside support after private polling showed its candidate had no hope of succeeding Andy Burnham, who resigned after winning the Makerfield by-election in June with an impressive 55 per cent of the vote, paving his path to Downing Street.

By contrast, Farage won only 46 per cent at the general election – just 27 per cent of registered voters – and polls show he’s less popular now than two years ago, data backed-up by conversations I had with locals there last week.

“He’s done nothing for this place – nothing,” I heard time and again from people who said they’d been willing to give him a chance to restore some of this former tourist hotspot’s faded glory.

It certainly didn’t look like much had changed since my last visit in 2024, canvassing for Labour’s Jovan Owusu-Nepaul – who was tied briefly in the polls with both Farage and the Tory incumbent before Labour high command banned him from accessing data, holding rallies or printing leaflets.

But even the politically disengaged are starting to realise they might have the power to chop the head off Reform’s snake, with one young man who works at a beach-front restaurant telling me he was thinking of voting for the first time just to “stick it to Nigel.”

The simple message that’s cutting through is strikingly similar to the one that worked so well in Makerfield – vote Binface/Burnham to sack Farage/Starmer.

But although Labour, like the Conservatives, Greens, Lib-Dems and Restore, is not fielding a candidate, high command again seem intensely relaxed about a Farage win.

The party’s NEC – in the dog days of Starmer’s leadership – warned members they “should avoid campaigning or participating in this stunt.” But Burnham’s taken a different tack, announcing at the Silver Clef Awards shortly before becoming Prime Minister: “Count Binface, you are carrying the hopes of the nation – don’t let us down!”

Only six months ago the same NEC, under pressure from Starmer, made the catastrophic mistake of blocking Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, which led to a Green win and the party overtaking Labour in the national polls.

The peril facing Labour was impossible to ignore after the locals in May saw heavy vote losses to the Greens, again, and heavy seat losses to Reform across the country – apart from London, where the Greens took six councils from Labour, half of them now run by ex-Labour lefties – triggering widespread panic among MPs and urgent calls for Starmer to stand down.

Ironically, without this pressure on Labour’s left flank from Green leader Zack Polanski, there’s no way Burnham would be PM today – but change at the top has led to both a “Burnham bounce” and a “Polanski plunge” as left-wing voters flock home to Labour.

Back in Clacton, frustrated by the lack of leaflets, rallies or really any presence at all from the official Binface campaign, local activists have tried their best to fill the void.

Pro-Binface graffiti decorates the seafront, while three young men were kicked off the pier last Friday for filming content of one of them wearing a cardboard Binface mask.

Unity in the Community, a longstanding local campaign group, has printed its own leaflets highlighting Farage’s dire record in office, handing them out at weekend stalls in the town square.

Although the group doesn’t officially endorse any of the 34 candidates, the leaflets are a good conversation starter and should help convince Farage-sceptics of the importance of voting next Thursday.

When I joined them at their stall, which alongside leaflets offered fresh strawberries, raspberries and sweets, the group were busily chatting to passers-by about Farage’s record and Binface’s chances.

Several locals I spoke to in the square spontaneously told me they were voting for Binface, but said so in hushed tones.

Most of the others made it clear they wanted to see the back of Farage, even if they didn’t quite believe Binface could pull it off. And of course, a few said they were still voting Reform, but they were all good-natured about it.

Staff in shops and cafes seemed especially keen to elect a new MP – while the last local I spoke to, who worked at the train station, told me loud and proud when asked about the election: “I’m voting for the Bin!”

Seven days left and Binface doesn’t need data, he needs to give Clacton a clear message of hope and change – and focus on inspiring the 73 per cent who never voted for Farage.

On the day, like Farage, he needs as many activists as possible to turn out his vote. Knock on any and all doors (Binface masks optional), hand out leaflets (if his campaign prints any), ride a bike round town with a megaphone – whatever it takes to remind locals that this is their last, best chance to undo their massive mistake two years ago and humiliate the hard right in style.

“I know Clacton’s hard to get to,” Farage complains in his infamous viral video – no doubt referring to the three-hour drive from London rather than a train ride that takes less than half the time but costs over twice as much.

But with the heatwave forecast to last and sandy beaches the best way to unwind after a long day’s campaigning, Binface supporters might like to take this golden opportunity to change the face of British politics for good – even if it looks like a long-shot – and give local tourism a boost, too.