WHAT has been the overall impact of the 12-day Israeli military aggression on Iran and the US air strikes on its nuclear facilities earlier this summer?

Negotiations between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran were already well under way when Israel initiated a large-scale unilateral air assault on Iran in contravention of all international laws and conventions.  

First and foremost, the civilian toll exacted over those days was significant — with over 1,000 killed and more than 5,000 injured. By contrast, Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Israel killed 28 people.

Key targets, including Iran’s military leadership, were taken out in the strikes and through the use of Mossad operatives inside the country. What remained of Iran’s air defence capabilities [from Israel’s previous air strikes carried out on October 26 2024] were comprehensively destroyed.  

The 12-day aggression was concluded with US president Trump’s orders of a series of massive strikes on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — actions expressly and strictly prohibited under international law.

This flagrantly illegal and unwarranted attack on Iran was neither condemned by Britain nor the EU.  

In fact, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz praised the attacks, stating it was “dirty work Israel is doing on behalf of all of us.” However, Iran and her people are reeling in the aftermath of this criminal aggression and the situation inside the country and throughout the region has been rendered even more unstable as a result.

How did the Iranian people react to the US-Israeli aggression — did they rally around the ruling theocratic regime?

It is now manifest that the core aim of Israel’s military assault on Iran was to engender “regime change” there, based on the presumption that the Iranian public would rise in support of Netanyahu and Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed previous dictator [Shah].  

The outcome was the opposite. However, while the regime will try to claim that the people rallied around the theocratic dictatorship, the reality on the ground is that widespread discontent with the ruling theocracy continues.

Iranians rallied around the themes of national unity and sovereignty, firmly rejecting foreign intervention while not expressing support for the ruling regime.

What challenges did the Iranian people face before the US-Israeli military attack?

For years, most Iranians have opposed “political Islam” as a system of governance, vehemently rejecting its reactionary restrictions on social, political and personal freedoms. From a socio-economic standpoint, their life and living environment over the past three decades of neoliberal policies have been severely impacted with no prospect of improvement.  

Widespread water and electricity shortages in all major Iranian cities are worsening due to years of mismanagement and corruption. Rising living costs and unemployment have deepened hardship for millions, while the government remains unable to address these complex issues.

President Masoud Pezeshkian recently confessed: “Poor decisions in the past have led to the current crisis. We are in a serious and unimaginable crisis.”

What is the role of the US sanctions regime in this situation?

US sanctions have undoubtedly played a massive role in deepening the plight of the Iranian people, as the country’s economy has already been hollowed out by a parasitic financial and mercantile elite and three decades of unrestrained neoliberalism.

This top echelon, whose interests are safeguarded by the regime in a relationship of mutual dependency, has made Iran’s weak and corruption-riddled economy even more vulnerable — essentially rendering it easy prey to crippling US sanctions. The main impact of this has been felt by working-class Iranians.

What are the prospects for resumption of the negotiations between Iran and the US, and what are the potential outcomes?

Negotiations have stalled because of the arbitrary demand that Iran completely abandons its uranium enrichment — including for civilian purposes at 3.67 per cent. However, indirect talks considering options like a regional consortium or a temporary suspension of enrichment by Iran continue. Therefore, the likelihood of resuming negotiations is reasonably high.

Iran’s leadership is in a desperate situation, fearing a resurgence of mass protests; thus, it is pinning its hopes on the possibility of relief from US sanctions, or their complete abandonment, to alleviate the severe economic pressure on the population — acting as a temporary painkiller for the worsening crisis.

The fact remains that Iran is in a significantly weak position, both economically and militarily. And in negotiations with Iran’s desperate leadership, whose sole objective is to ensure the survival of the theocratic dictatorship at any cost, Trump has two major opportunities for leverage: a) further economic pressure via sanctions to exploit Iran’s weakened economy; and b) giving the green light to further criminal intervention by the Israeli war machine.

What do the Iranian people want, and can they influence the upcoming developments between Iran and the US?

Not directly. All major decisions, especially on foreign policy, rest solely with the “supreme leader” Ayatollah Khamenei and his inner circle. However, the regime is still acutely aware of rising public anger and the risks posed by renewed protests.

In closed-door negotiations between representatives of Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei, the rights and demands of the Iranian people for freedom and social justice will not be honoured or safeguarded. Iranians face both a dictatorship and aggressive policies from Trump, who has a track record of erratic and unpredictable foreign policy.

Peace and stability are regarded by the Iranian people as fundamental to their achieving freedom and social justice. There is a broad consensus within Iran advocating for “No War” and expressing opposition to any external intervention.

What is the position of progressives in Iran?

The primary concern of most national progressive forces centres on the crucial need for a lasting peace and to avert war. They recognise that without peace, the nation will face war, destruction, instability, increased repression and a massive setback for progress towards freedom and social justice.  

Nevertheless, there are some, both in Iran and abroad, who continue to project Iran as somehow anti-imperialist and capable of confronting the US based on grossly exaggerated notions of Iran’s military capability and turning a blind eye to the regime’s attitude towards the Iranian trade union movement, progressive forces and the Iranian working class.  

This is of course seized upon by the extreme fundamentalist forces trying to prop up this ailing and unpopular regime.

What can progressives abroad do to assist the Iranian people against this fraught backdrop?

Following the military attacks, promoting international solidarity with the Iranian people is of utmost importance to help prevent future US-Israeli military action against Iran. It is essential to engage in co-ordinated efforts with peace campaigners and progressive organisations worldwide.  

Such collaboration should prioritise raising public awareness and mobilising opinion through media outreach, lobbying official channels, pressuring governments, and utilising the considerable capacities of trade unions, civil society organisations, and anti-war groups to this end.

For news and analysis of events in Iran visit the Committee for the Defence of the Iranian People's Rights at www.codir.net or email: codir_info@btinternet.com.