AS THE Westminster vultures circle its twitching corpse, one could be forgiven that the May 7 elections in Scotland, Wales and the 136 English councils and for six Metro mayors were no more than a referendum on the Starmer premiership.

Unlike the 2025 elections which took place primarily in Tory-run councils, and which delivered control of seven local authorities to Reform, these elections include many Labour-run authorities, including the Senedd, most of the London boroughs and Europe’s largest local authority – Birmingham. 

According to Pollcheck Labour is predicted to lose nearly half of the 2,320 seats it is contesting — nearly twice that of the Tories, whose misery will nevertheless be compounded with a predicted 41 per cent loss of its seats. Labour and Reform are neck and neck in Scotland, 15 points behind the SNP. And 37 of the local authorities are predicting a change of administration, 20 of which are Labour councils, 19 to no overall control, and one to Reform which is expected to gain over 1,200 council seats.

So while these results spell disaster for Labour and the Tories — the commentariat seem uninterested in the implications for local services and the people who depend on them.

There is no end in sight to the austerity that has degraded local government services to such an extent that social care, housing, education, youth services, road maintenance, bus services, environmental protection and local policing are no longer capable of meeting the needs of working-class communities.

Nigel Farage squirms when he is reminded of Reform’s promise to “reduce waste and cut taxes” at last year’s council elections, as the reality of running essential services with no money hit the hapless Reform administrations which have started to fall apart – over 10 per cent of Reform councillors elected last year have since resigned, many prompting expensive and waste-full by-elections within weeks of them being elected. As this paper reported today it seems the quality and suitability of many Reform candidates has not improved, with a predictable coterie of racists and misogynists now running for office.

This election will be characterised by tactical voting as working-class communities reject the ongoing failure of municipal politics to improve their lives. The question for many is who is the left or progressive candidate most likely to beat Reform if the local Labour candidate is a Starmerite, trade-union-hating genocide apologist? At a time of despair and disillusionment the bigger question is what will be the abstention rate among the working class which is increasingly disengaged from electoral politics?

Some may think it makes no difference because of the Treasury’s stranglehold on local government finance. But the political stripe of the local council matters. Local government is a theatre of class struggle. Decisions that have a material impact on the lives of working-class communities, even within cash-strapped councils, have a class bias which is why these elections are so important.

Turnout is likely to be the determining factor in the results. It is the working class that abstains in elections – so the task of the whole left in the next 12 days is to take the argument for progressive change and the importance of voting to keep out Reform into the heart of those communities facing elections.

While few will shed a tear for the forthcoming demise of the Starmer premiership – there is much more at stake in these elections than delivering a stiletto to the Labour Together faction.