Including races at Thirsk, Goodwood and Newmarket
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THIS has to be one of my favourite Saturdays of the racing year, not because the first two classic events of the season are set to visit us with the 2,000 Guineas this afternoon and the 1,000 Guineas tomorrow, but more because of the card at Thirsk and Goodwood.
In my time commentating for TalkSport I would be sent up to the North Yorkshire track to commentate on four races on Hunt Cup day and there is little doubt that the atmosphere there would be well in advance and more heightened than headquarters every day of the week.
So without an ounce of apology, I will deal with the Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (2.40) with a maximum field set to go to post for this class two, one-mile event around a bend.
It is hardly a massive prize for a handicap for horses rated up to 105, but a field of 16 will go to post including last year’s hero Flight Plan, who is set to run off a mammoth 8lbs lower mark this year due to his fallow nine-race run of performances following that all the way win 12 months ago.
You could argue that this will be a renewal with a deal more strength in depth. The likely favourite will probably be the William Haggas-trained Sea Force, a beaten favourite from the Holyrood Handicap at Musselburgh on his seasonal debut when a combination of lack of a run and a ninth furlong may well have been his undoing.
Karl Burke has a second string to his bow with Thunder Run, a winner over an extended 10 furlongs at York last year off a mark of 100, after which his form fell dramatically to pieces being beaten an accumulative total of 44 lengths on his subsequent four starts. Esherann had a lovely blow out at Newmarket first time out and should be spot on. Now with Tony Carroll from Dermot Weld, this lightly raced son of Wootton Bassett is surely a viable player here. But the nod goes to APIARIST, who ran well off a higher mark on a number of occasions last year, most notably when a never nearer eighth in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot.
The Suffolk Handicap at Newmarket is another big betting race worth a second look. At the top of the market, Bullet Point has been very well touted throughout the week and I thought his price would collapse, but that has been far from what has happened and indeed Mister Winston, an all the way winner at the Craven meeting, has overtaken him in the market place.
I thought the latter was more than slightly flattered by that win though and under a 5lbs penalty I am not so sure he will get an easy lead, despite this being field of just 13 when a much bigger set of runners could have been anticipated at the five-day stage.
So instead, I am going to go out on a limb and back one of the big outsiders in ANCIENT ROME. I have to admit I would much prefer to see Jamie Spencer in the saddle as he was when the seven-year-old had a mighty season two years ago, when winning off a 105 at Goodwood from miles off the pace and then landing a huge pot in America in the Tourist Mile Stakes.
Since then in 15 outings he only has two placed efforts to his name, the latest coming when third of eight behind Flying Frontier off 100 at Sandown Park. However, his final run last season in the York Heritage Handicap and then on his seasonal return at Newbury in the Spring Cup suggest a mark in the high 90s is very playable if he gets a good pace to chase late on, something he didn’t get at the Berkshire track two weeks ago.
And so belatedly onto the feature race of the day, the 2,000 Guineas with 15 set to go to post for the first classic of the season. As always inspection of the horses in the paddock is of paramount importance, even if it is on television.
Reportedly, the ante-post favourite Bow Echo has been working really nicely for George Boughey and the fast ground and undulating track certainly won’t be a problem for this unbeaten son of Night of Thunder. On my private ratings, he is the one to beat even without the likely improvement on only his fourth career start.
You could make a pertinent argument that Distant Storm has achieved a higher rating on his four outings, but I just feel his optimum trip this season could well turn out to be a mile and a quarter and I have backed him already for the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Park in July.
So with high regard for both of the front runners in the market, my each-way play is going to be the Irish raider THESECRETADVERSARY (3.35).
More experienced than all of his 14 rivals, this nice moving son of St Mark’s Basilica also has a solid chance of staying much further backed up by the way he settles in his races. His dam stayed a mile and a half, as did her sire, while his own sire gives him enough pace to provide a strong blend of speed and stamina going forward into his second season.
The chestnut colt showed that he had trained well when scooting clear of Power Blue and company in the Group Three Ballyinch Stakes at Leopardstown aided by a good pace up front and I reckon he is worth at least four pounds or more for that three-year-old debut.
A place in the first three from off the pace is the minimum I am hoping for, and who knows about Epsom next month as well.
Over at Goodwood, the one race that really interests me from a punting point of view has to be the five furlong handicap in which SERENITY DREAM (3.20) is very interesting reverting to five furlongs for the very first time on his 27th career start. Everything about his profile suggests this quick five will be too fast for him, but there could be a pace blow out up top here and he is bound to be running on at the death and is worthy of an each-way play.
For the record, I think Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas is between the likely favourite PRECISE and the Fred Darling third and big outsider DOMINA IGNIS (3.35) and I have accordingly backed both in this bigger field.



