SINCE Wednesday November 27, a ceasefire has been in effect between Israel and Lebanon. The proposal, developed by France and the US, calls on both Hezbollah and the Israeli army to withdraw from southern Lebanon.
The truce is initially set for a period of 60 days. During this time, Israel must withdraw behind the international border, while Hezbollah must retreat behind the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometres north of the Israeli border.
The Lebanese army will be responsible for monitoring the border in co-ordination with Unifil, the UN peacekeeping force in the area, and will oversee maintaining calm in the region. Five countries, including France and the US, will supervise compliance with the agreement.
A victory?
Hostilities began on October 8 2023, the day after the surprise attack from Gaza against Israel. At the end of September 2024, the Israeli regime escalated its war against Lebanon. Netanyahu updated his war objectives, vowing to redraw the map of the Middle East and determined to bring hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens back to their homes in the north of the country.
These residents had fled due to Hezbollah’s rocket attacks from Lebanon. Hezbollah justified these attacks as a response to the genocide in Gaza and declared from day one that there would be an immediate ceasefire if Israel stopped its invasion of Gaza.
The Israeli government is eager to portray this temporary truce as a victory, but for many Israelis, it falls short of their expectations. The reality is that Israel needed this ceasefire.
In recent weeks, Israel has struggled with dwindling ammunition supplies. On Tuesday November 26, Netanyahu himself stated that replenishing munitions stockpiles was one of the primary reasons for the ceasefire.
Additionally, the strain on military reservists, who have been fighting for months, is becoming unsustainable. More than 140 civilians and soldiers on the Israeli side have been killed in this conflict, which is a significant number by Israeli standards. According to Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu, Israel “cannot afford another year of war” on this scale in the north.
In other words, the pause in fighting serves to give Israeli troops a moment of respite and allow stockpiles to be replenished. Practically speaking, it buys time for the US and other arms suppliers to deliver more weapons, which Israel will deploy at an accelerated pace.
While Hezbollah has suffered significant blows, it has not been neutralised, let alone eliminated, nor has the “redrawing of the Middle East” materialised. According to Iran expert Peyman Jafari, Hezbollah might even be more dangerous now than before.
In Lebanon, sympathy for Hezbollah has grown, as many citizens view Israeli military attacks as assaults on the country rather than on the group. According to Jafari, support for Hezbollah has also increased throughout the Middle East.
What’s next?
Between October 7 2023, and September 20 2024, Israel carried out more than 8,000 attacks against Hezbollah and other armed groups in Lebanon. The past two months saw even more intense fighting, resulting in over 3,700 Lebanese deaths, including an unknown number of fighters. Around a million civilians, or more than a quarter of Lebanon’s population, were forced to flee their homes.
Since the Israeli military failed to neutralise Hezbollah or gain control over the area south of the Litani River — the main goal of its ground invasion — it expanded its air strikes to nearly all Lebanese territory, with central Beirut being a major target. The damage inflicted on the country is enormous.
Israel completely failed to capture southern Lebanon and resorted to leveraging air power to exert pressure. Lebanon, lacking air defences and a functional national army, was unable to respond effectively.
The agreement reached is highly unbalanced. Hezbollah’s armed resistance is forced to retreat dozens of kilometres within its own territory, while the Israeli army is allowed to remain stationed right at the border.
Moreover, Israel reserves the right to launch attacks if Hezbollah violates the truce. Given Israel’s military history, finding a pretext for such actions would not be difficult.
This ceasefire is, therefore, extremely fragile. On the very first day, the Israeli army fired four times at Lebanese civilians. Israel has stated it will intervene militarily again if it deems it necessary.
Israel can now refocus its attention on Gaza, where it seems increasingly intent on colonising parts of the territory. According to The Economist, amidst catastrophic destruction, new buildings are rising. These include large outposts for the Israeli army along newly paved roads in strategic locations. These roads divide the Gaza Strip in two and cut it off from Egypt.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to receive new arms shipments from the US. President Biden recently approved a $680 million arms deal with the zionist state, including precision weapons. This is in addition to the approximately $20 billion in arms sales approved by Congress last week.
In April, Congress approved a total of $26bn in additional military aid for Israel, on top of the $3.8bn in “security assistance” that the US provides annually. The genocide must go on.
