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'Red Welsh Way' falters after Labour's poll slump
First Minister and Labour leader in Wales, Baroness Eluned Morgan, delivers a keynote speech marking one year to the 2026 Senedd election, at the Norwegian Church in Cardiff, May 6, 2025

LEFT activists called on First Minister Eluned Morgan’s government to be more radical in its approach today after she delivered a speech aimed at distancing her government from Sir Keir Starmer’s welfare reforms.

Ms Morgan set out what she called the “Red Welsh Way” in an attempt to try and fend off Reform UK in Wales.

But her speech was undermined within hours by an ITV Wales/Cardiff University Senedd poll, which had the Labour vote slumping to 18 per cent in third place behind Reform on 25 per cent and Plaid in the lead on 30 per cent.

This is the first time that Plaid Cymru has enjoyed a poll lead, and it showed them on course for 35 seats in an enlarged Senedd of 96 members.

Reform UK is on course to win 30 seats, Welsh Labour 19 seats, while the Conservatives would hold nine.

The poll indicates that support from Labour is not going to Reform but instead to Plaid Cymru, with the nationalists on course to become the largest party.

In her speech, the First Minister set out some differences with UK Labour on welfare and devolving the Crown Estates, but continued her rhetoric of partnership in power with Sir Keir Starmer.

“We finally have two Labour governments working together, led by a serious Prime Minister, who has reset the relationship with the Welsh government.”

Welsh Labour Grassroots (WLG) welcomed the First Minister’s attempt to distance Welsh Labour from what it called “disastrous anti-working class polices of the UK Labour government,” but urged her to go further. 

A WLG spokesperson said: “If Welsh Labour is to beat off the challenge of Reform, history shows that there needs to be clear red water between Wales and Westminster.”

Ms Morgan said some of the UK government’s policies have not been popular and said she hoped Sir Keir would rethink that.

The FM also said the Barnett formula for funding the devolved nations did not serve Wales and needs to be changed.

On the Westminster government’s welfare reforms, she said: “We know that disability cuts are likely to hit Wales more than six times more proportionately in some areas in Wales compared to England.”

Unison Cymru Wales’s Jess Turner welcomed the First Minister’s speech and said: “Political leaders must be bold and show they’re prepared to stand up for Wales.

“Wales has been short-changed for far too long, and the ongoing funding restraint is unsustainable.”

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