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What could happen if Hezbollah fights Israel?
As the prospect of an all-out war between the Lebanon-based militia and the IDF becomes more likely, JOHN WIGHT considers what has changed since the 2006 conflict that Hezbollah considers a victory
Hezbollah march at a funeral on October 10 2023 for two members killed by Israel in Kherbet Selem village, south Lebanon
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“The army that conquers makes certain of victory, and then seeks battle.” — Sun Tzu
TENSIONS on the border between Israel and Lebanon in the wake of Hamas’s incursion into southern Israel on October 7 have escalated into clashes between the Israeli military and airforce and Hezbollah, as the former prepares to launch its ground invasion of Gaza. With this in mind, and with the stakes involved taken into account, it seems now to be a question of when, not if, Hezbollah will open up a northern front against Israel.
It was inevitable that this would be the case. Ever since the month-long conflict between Hezbollah and Israel of July-August 2006, both have been preparing for the next one, reviewing and upgrading their respective capabilities, tactics and training with precisely what is unfolding now key in their forward planning.
Glaringly absent from the welter of analyses by pro-Israel think tanks across the West on the coming conflict between the Shia resistance movement and the IDF has been the crucial factor separating both. Said crucial factor lies on the level not of preparedness, but psychology. And it is here where Hezbollah holds the advantage.
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