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Is there an obvious choice for Footballer of the Year?

JAMES NALTON argues that, unlike previous years, the deserving winner is not so apparent  

Manchester City's Erling Haaland and Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes during the Premier League match at Old Trafford, Manchester, January 17, 2026

SOMETIMES, the choice of who to vote for as the Football Writers’ Association Footballer of the Year almost feels too easy. Last year, for example, Mohamed Salah was clearly the best player in English football and won the award as voted for by members of the Football Writers’ Association with over 90 per cent of the vote.

You could say that the surprising thing about that result was not the convincing nature of Salah’s win, but that 10 per cent of voters picked someone else, and that 18 other players received votes.

It was a similar story in 2023 when Erling Haaland was clearly the best player in the league and received 80 per cent of the vote. But this year, it’s not so obvious, and there are plenty of candidates for awards, even below the title challengers.

Players like Harry Wilson at Fulham, Brentford striker Igor Thiago, and Everton midfielder James Garner have all had stellar seasons, while Marcos Senesi has been one of the best centre-backs in the league at an impressive Bournemouth team.

Speaking of Bournemouth, Antoine Semenyo’s performances there, combined with those for Manchester City after completing a January transfer, have him in the running, and he would become the first player to win the award having played for two different teams in the same season.

A good starting point is usually to look for attacking players who have made the difference for the league champions. It’s generally easier to make cases for them due to being able to point to goals and assists as evidence, but likely title-winners Arsenal have had no real standout attackers.

For title challengers Manchester City, Haaland has had another remarkable goalscoring season, with 25 goals in the league and 36 in all competitions, but despite the continuation of his ridiculous goalscoring record, it still doesn’t feel like he’s done enough to get the vote this season.

The other outstanding attacking number this season is Bruno Fernandes’s 19 assists. With three games remaining, he is still on track to break the Premier League record, which is jointly held by Thierry Henry (2002-03) and Kevin De Bruyne (2019-20) with 20.

In truth, though, this season for Fernandes hasn’t been much different from his others at Manchester United, he’s just had more support and, it appears, since Michael Carrick arrived as manager, a more suitable setup in which to perform.

In terms of expected assists (xA), which try to measure the quality of chances a player creates for others, the stats website Understat shows that Fernandes actually had a higher xA tally in the 2022-23 season (17.27) when he registered eight assists, than he has so far in this season (15.79), where he is on course to break the assists record.

He’s had an xA of 10 or above in five of his seven seasons at Man United, and in the 2020-21 season scored an impressive 18 goals to go with 12 assists. Fernandes has been consistently good in a team that has been mostly bad, but this year, a few others have risen to the challenge and helped propel him towards this record and lift United comfortably into the Champions League qualifying spots.

Like Haaland, Fernandes would be a worthy vote for Footballer of the Year in 2026.

Back to the team who are likely to be crowned champions at the end of the season, it’s likely that Declan Rice will be the most popular choice for the FWA award. He will get votes based on the FWA’s criteria, set out by former player and journalist Charles Buchan in 1947, that it should go to “the professional player who by precept and example is considered by a ballot of members to be the footballer of the year.”

Rice fits both of those definitions. He’s performed well in midfield for Arsenal all season, and there is sometimes a sense that in years where the voting is tight, it can tend to favour England internationals.

Two prevailing strengths have helped Arsenal go from runners-up in the past three seasons to Premier League champions for the first time since 2004. One is their set-piece threat, and the other is their solid defence.

Brazilian centre-back Gabriel Magalhaes has been a key part of both of these aspects of Arsenal’s game, and while his number of goals from set pieces isn’t as high as you might think (three), he’s a big reason why Arsenal are such a threat at dead-ball situations. It’s not just about the end result of who scores the goal, but also about the overall trouble caused to an opposition defence in these scenarios, and Gabriel certainly causes trouble. He also has four assists to go with the goals.

It’s worth acknowledging that Rice’s delivery has also been a major reason for this set-piece success, but Gabriel has been part of that Arsenal defence that currently stands joint-fifth for fewest goals conceded in the Premier League era, as well as being key to their set-piece threat. He’s also captained the team on several occasions and has played a big role, along with Rice, in building the kind of mentality a team needs to win a league title.

This is especially important for a team that has finished runners-up in three consecutive seasons and has regularly faced accusations of bottling it in key moments in previous years. That’s not been the case with Arsenal so far this season, unless the biggest collapse yet is just around the corner, but with FWA Footballer of the Year voting already closed, Gabriel got my vote.

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