WITH more than 95.41 per cent of the votes counted, Bolivia’s Plurinational Electoral Body reported that, according to the preliminary results, Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and former president Jorge Quiroga of the Free Alliance (AL) emerged as the big winners on election day. Paz obtained more than 32 per cent of the valid votes, while Quiroga obtained almost 27 per cent.

Bolivia’s current President, Luis Arce, said in a speech to the nation: “We have made every effort to ensure a peaceful and transparent electoral process.” For Arce, who decided to withdraw his election campaign in May, the election result was a severe blow, as his party, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), came in sixth place, its worst electoral performance in decades.

The right wing in power

In his victory speech, Paz, who is an economist, said to his supporters: “Thank you to all the men and women who made this possible. We are the voice of those who did not appear in the polls, who did not exist, and had no voice. There is a Bolivia that is not taken into account.”

For his part, Quiroga said: “From now on, Bolivia will be free forever and ever. We have spoken with strength, faith, hope and dignity. With our vote, we have restored everyone’s faith in democracy and shown that the country can be changed with the power of the vote, against blockades and sabotage. Today, Bolivian democracy has won.”

Paz has presented himself as a centre-right candidate seeking to refresh Bolivian politics. He is the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-93) and is currently a senator for the department of Tarija. Many analysts have seen his vice-presidential candidate, the “outsider” Edman Lara, as the reason for his meteoric rise.

“Captain Lara,” as he is known, is a former police captain who exposed alleged cases of corruption within the police force, leading many voters disillusioned with the political situation in Bolivia to see him as an “anti-Establishment” alternative.

Quiroga, for his part, is a key ideologue of Bolivian neoliberalism who has resorted to conservatism to advance to the second round of elections. His harsh rhetoric against the MAS has led more radical sectors of the right to see him as a necessary option for Bolivia.

An engineer by profession, Quiroga curiously participated in the government of the father of his now biggest adversary, Paz. He then served as vice-president in the 1997 government of Hugo Banzer (who in the 1970s presided over a dictatorial government). After Banzer’s resignation in 2001, Quiroga briefly assumed the presidency of Bolivia, where he openly confronted the coca growers’ union, led at the time by Evo Morales.

Despite their apparent differences, the candidates have a lot in common. Both studied at university in the US and are part of the Bolivian political Establishment: Paz, through his father, and Quiroga through his past in the governments of the Bolivian right.

In this sense, public service is an essential part of both their lives. Furthermore, both propose a drastic change in the Bolivian state, which they see as too large and blame for the year-on-year inflation, which currently stands at 25 per cent.

A fragmented political map

The big surprise was the defeat of businessman Samuel Doria Medina, from the right-wing Unidad Party, who many pollsters had placed first in voting projections. Medina finished in third place with 19.86 per cent of the valid votes; he has already announced that he will support Paz’s candidacy, which could be seen as a preliminary alliance between the two political forces.

In fourth place is the president of the Senate, leftist Andronico Rodriguez, with just 8.22 per cent. Right-wing Manfred Reyes of Sumate obtained 6.62 per cent of the votes, while the ruling MAS candidate, former government minister Eduardo del Castillo, came in sixth with the lowest percentage in decades for that party: 3.16 per cent. Jonny Fernandez obtained 1.62 per cent of the valid votes, while Pavel Aracena came in last with 1.45 per cent.

The null vote: Morales’s bet

Former president Evo Morales (2006-19), who was not allowed to participate in the elections, called on his supporters to cast null votes.

In a post after the elections, Morales stated: “The people sent an unequivocal message to those who became corrupt in the exercise of politics and betrayed the most humble. Bolivia does not want privatisation or persecution with a patronage-based justice system; Bolivia demands economic recovery, stability, growth, and more democracy.”

Official results indicate that invalid votes accounted for 19.38 per cent of the total, which clearly shows a significant increase in this type of vote. Historically, invalid and blank votes in Bolivia tend to account for between 5 per cent and 6 per cent, while in the elections on August 17, the two combined accounted for 21.83 per cent. Therefore, Morales’s call to cast invalid votes heavily influenced the results, demonstrating the support his leadership still enjoys.

However, the increase in invalid and blank votes will not affect the names of those who will go on to the run-off election to be held on October 19 2025, and who will compete for political control of a country undergoing a difficult economic situation and an increasingly fragmented political landscape.

According to Morales, these results will give greater legitimacy to the opposition that will now have the task of confronting whichever right-wing candidate wins the election. However, many politicians on the left have viewed the result with disappointment, as it appears to show a clear shift to the right in the Andean country.

The right wing will also control the legislature

This shift to the right is also evident in the new composition of the Chamber of Deputies, which will be controlled by Bolivian right-wing forces, even though no party obtained an absolute majority. The PDC won 45 seats, AL won 37, Unidad secured 28, and Sumate won 6.

Now, the left has only seven seats, six from Rodriguez’s Alianza Popular and one from the MAS, which is the lowest number of left-wing legislators in recent decades. There are still eight seats to be decided.

In the other chamber, the Senate, the right wing appears to have an almost absolute presence. The PDC won 13 seats, AL 11, Unidad 6, and Sumate 1. Five seats remain to be decided.

The right wing will have to learn to engage in dialogue if it wants to reach legislative agreements, something that has historically been very difficult due to internal tensions and diverse economic interests. For its part, the left has been almost eliminated from the legislative branch, which surprises many, considering the almost absolute power it held throughout the 21st century.

This article appeared on Peoplesdispatch.org.