THE recurring use of early release schemes within the prison system should not be viewed simply as a question of whether prisoners are being released too early.

From a Prison Officers Association (POA) perspective, early release is a symptom of a much deeper structural problem. The criminal justice system has repeatedly allowed demand for prison places to exceed the capacity, staffing and infrastructure required to operate prisons safely.

The introduction of SDS40 (Standard Determinate Sentence 40) in September 2024 demonstrated the scale of that problem.

The automatic release point for eligible prisoners serving standard determinant sentences was reduced from 50 to 40 per cent because prison capacity was approaching crisis point.

The Independent Sentencing Review subsequently described the situation during 2024 as a period when the prison system came dangerously close to collapse.

The fundamental question for the POA is therefore not simply why prisoners were released early, but why the system was allowed to reach a position where early release became necessary.

In my view the root causes of the crisis engulfing this government has occurred because the prison population has increased significantly over recent decades, while the prison estate has struggled to keep pace.

Many establishments are ageing, unsuitable for modern prison populations or difficult to operate efficiently.

Importantly, prison capacity is not simply a calculation of the number of cells available. A prison place requires trained staff, healthcare, security, purposeful activity, rehabilitation services and suitable accommodation.

When prisons are overcrowded and understaffed, officers are required to manage increasingly complex populations with fewer resources. This places enormous pressure on the workforce, contributes to sickness and retention problems, and reduces the ability of prisons to provide meaningful activity and rehabilitation.

The result is a cycle in which prisons spend increasing amounts of time managing immediate operational pressures rather than addressing the causes of reoffending.

The financial vandalism imposed in the name of austerity by the previous government created the perfect storm.

The problem is also influenced by pressures elsewhere in the criminal justice system.  

Court delays have contributed to a significant increase in population. Again the previous government chose to close magistrates’ courts all around the country.

By June 2026, more than 15,000 prisoners were held on remand. Although these individuals may not ultimately receive custodial sentences, they still require accommodation, staffing, healthcare and security.

The prison service consequently becomes the point at which failures elsewhere in the criminal justice system become operational reality.

The Sentencing Act 2026 attempts to establish a more sustainable framework for sentencing and release.

Among its reforms, it introduces new release arrangements for prisoners serving standard determinate sentences, including a minimal release point of one third for certain prisoners previously subject to release at 40 or 50 per cent while some prisoners previously released at the two third point become eligible at the halfway point.

The Act also creates a presumption that custodial sentences of 12 months or less should be suspended, subject to exemptions, and expands the availability of suspended sentences.

There is a legitimate argument that short custodial sentences are not always the most effective way of reducing reoffending. Properly resourced community sentences can provide punishment while allowing offenders to maintain accommodation, employment and family relationships and received structured supervision.

However, from a POA perspective, reducing the prison population must not simply mean transferring risk from prisons to communities. If more offenders are dealt with in the community, probation must have the resources and staffing necessary to supervise them effectively.

Similarly, if prisoners are released earlier, there must be adequate accommodation, healthcare, rehabilitation and resettlement support available. Otherwise, the policy risks transferring pressure rather than solving it.

One of the greatest concerns is that release policy can become driven by short term prison capacity rather than long term criminal justice planning.

SDS40 was introduced as an emergency response to an immediate capacity crisis. The Sentencing Act 2026 seeks to replace emergency arrangements with the statutory framework. That is preferable to repeatedly changing release arrangements in response to overcrowding.

However, sentencing and release policy should ultimately be based upon evidence, public protection and effective rehabilitation, not the number of cells available at a particular point in time.

Prison officers should not continually be expected to implement emergency policies created because the wide system has failed to plan for predictable population pressures.

So what needs to change? From a POA perspective, a sustainable approach requires several measures.

First, the government needs a long-term prison population strategy that properly connects sentencing policy with safe operational capacity.

Second, there must be continued investment in the prison estate. New places are important, but they must be secure, appropriately designed and capable of supporting rehabilitation.

Third, staffing must be treated as a fundamental part of capacity. Recruitment and retention, pay, training, career development and staff welfare with a decent retirement age are essential to maintaining safe prisons.

Fourth, probation must be properly resourced if greater use is to be made of community sentences and earlier release.

Finally, the criminal justice system must operate as an integrated whole. Courts, police, probation and the immigration system cannot continue to operate in isolation when decisions made in one part directly affect capacity in another.

The POA position should not simply be characterised as an argument for longer sentences or more prisoners. The fundamental argument is for a properly planned, properly staffed and properly resourced criminal justice system.

Early release schemes are ultimately a symptom of a system under pressure. The Sentencing Act 2026 may provide a more structured approach to sentencing and release, but legislation alone cannot resolve the underlying problems of prison capacity, staffing, estate condition, court delays and probation resources.

The real test of the Act is therefore whether it creates a safer and more sustainable criminal justice system.

Prison officers should not be expected to carry the operational consequences of failures elsewhere in the system. Nor should the public be expected to accept repeated emergency release schemes as an inevitable feature of criminal justice policy.

Sustainable sentencing requires sustainable capacity, and sustainable capacity requires investment, staffing and long-term planning.

Steve Gillan is general secretary of Prison Officers Association (POA).