WESTMINSTER is braced for a political earthquake as hard-right Reform UK looks set to make major gains in Thursday's local elections and a parliamentary by-election.

Last-minute polling shows Nigel Farage’s party on course to overturn a Labour majority of more than 15,000 in Runcorn and Helsby, which is choosing a new MP after the last one resigned following a public brawl with a constituent.

It is also tipped to win two of four metro mayoralties being contested this week — in Hull and East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, where former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns is standing for Reform.

With 23 councils holding elections, the party may win more seats than Labour or the Tories.

Such an outcome could spark a crisis of confidence in Kemi Badenoch’s leadership as the Conservatives trail both Reform and Labour in most surveys.

She is inching the Tories towards some form of pact with Reform, something her rival, shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, would pursue more aggressively.

The Tories have most to lose, since the seats contested were last up for election in 2021 when Boris Johnson was enjoying a fleeting popularity bounce. 

Although Reform is aggressively targeting Labour voters, polling evidence suggests that far more of its supporters are defectors from the Tories.

The polls are also bad news for Labour. Doncaster, the one council it is defending, is a major Reform target. Labour could also lose the West of England mayoralty, centred on Bristol, to the Greens.

Left MP Jon Trickett said: “In Canada, the governing party changed its unpopular leader, refused to bend the knee to [US President Donald] Trump, rallied the country behind a call for economic change and came from 20 points behind to win the election.

“Makes you think.”

On the left, the Socialist Party-led Trades Union and Socialist Coalition is backing 103 candidates, while the Communist Party is standing five, the Workers Party four and Majority, the party initiated by former Newcastle mayor Jamie Driscoll, one.

Anticipating trouble, Ms Badenoch said that any bad results would not be down to her but rather to the party’s present unpopularity.

“We have a job to do to fix the brand. Anyone who thinks that this is an overnight task and that changing leader yet again is the solution is not paying attention,” she said.