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NEU Senior Regional Support Officer
Plaid surging ahead of Reform in Welsh election polls
Leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth applauds after Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle is declared winner for the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, at Caerphilly Leisure Centre, October 24, 2025

PLAID CYMRU is surging ahead in the polls in Wales, moving clear of Reform UK ahead of the upcoming Senedd election, with Labour slipping further behind into fourth place.

The latest YouGov poll for Cardiff University shows Labour’s predicted Senedd vote share has fallen to just 10 per cent, while Plaid Cymru continues to lead on 33 per cent. 

Reform UK’s support stands at 30 per cent, unchanged since the September ITV Wales YouGov poll.

A separate breakdown in the survey shows Plaid Cymru’s predicted vote share at a record high of 37 per cent, with Reform UK second on 23 per cent. 

Labour’s support remains at 10 per cent, suggesting its lowest level of popularity in Wales since devolution began.

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said the findings confirmed that May’s Senedd election was now “a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform.”

They said: “More and more people are realising they face a choice between two very different futures, and are choosing to back Plaid Cymru’s positive vision for Wales.

“That’s because we are the only party that will always stand up for Wales, with new leadership and serious plans to fix our NHS and help people with the cost-of-living crisis.

“Reform is focused on chasing headlines and getting Nigel Farage closer to Number 10 — not on Wales’s future.

“There is real momentum behind Plaid Cymru, but we are taking nothing for granted. 

“After decades in charge, Labour is finished, but the future of Wales is still to be written.”

The Senedd election will take place on May 7.
 

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