NHS waiting lists must be cut by more than half for the government to meet its key pledge of carrying out 92 per cent of routine operations within 18 weeks by the end of Parliament in 2029, a study has found.

The analysis “underscores the challenge still required to improve waiting times,” researchers said.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer made the key pledge back in January.

The latest NHS performance data showed that the waiting list for routine hospital treatment had fallen slightly after rising for three consecutive months.

An estimated 7.39 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of September, relating to 6.24 million patients, down from 7.41 million treatments and 6.25 million patients at the end of August.

But experts from the NHS and the universities of Bath, Lancaster and Durham suggest waiting lists would need to fall by 54.1 per cent — or 3.4 million — to reach the 92 per cent standard.

Study author Dr Richard Wood, of the University of Bath, said: “This study underscores the challenge still required to improve waiting times.

“Since August 2022, numbers awaiting consultant-led elective treatment have remained above seven million, with 61.8 per cent currently waiting under the 18-week threshold.

“By our estimates, the waiting list is required to halve to 3.4 million in order to restore the 92 per cent 18-week target.

“We await the Budget, which we are told will — among other priorities — ‘focus on cutting waiting lists’.”

The study — published in the Royal College of Physicians’ (RCP) Future Healthcare Journal — also highlighted “unequal distribution of this challenge.”

It found different regions in England, as well as different specialties, require “disproportionately more or less resources than others to reach their required waiting list targets.”

Dr Hilary Williams, RCP clinical vice -president, said: “The NHS waiting list is more than just a figure.

“It represents real people that are likely living in pain and discomfort. This only gets worse as treatment is delayed, often leading to more complex and intensive care needs.

“This study adds to the growing evidence that people in some regions are waiting significantly longer for elective treatment than others.

“These regional disparities are unjust and risks contributing to wider health inequalities.”

Earlier this month, Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he believed the government could meet the target by the end of Parliament.