A YOUGOV poll this year places the economy, health and the environment as the top three concerns of the electorate — but this is a false division.

Both the economy and health fold into the climate and environmental emergency. The former two cannot be addressed without first tackling the causes of climate breakdown and the decline of the natural world. There is no economy on a dead planet.

The Earth’s biosphere and climate are inextricably linked. Global heating has exacerbated the degradation of the natural world and, conversely, the decline in nature feeds the climate emergency. Restoring nature alongside cutting emissions is crucial to limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C. 

As The McKinsey Global Institute reports, “All seven major energy and land-use systems contribute substantially to emissions individually, and each will thus need to undergo transformation if the net-zero goal is to be achieved. Moreover, these systems are highly interdependent. Actions to reduce emissions must therefore take place in concert across the systems.”

It is clear that Britain’s strategy must urgently address both global emissions and ecological impacts and the Climate and Nature Bill before Parliament is the roadmap for this vital work.

Warnings

The 6th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned with “high confidence” that “multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact.”

Sea-level rise, storm surges, heavy rainfall, heat and drought will heighten flood risks and consequent crop failure. But equally,  without reform, our food system, responsible for 35 per cent of emissions, will continue as a driver of global heating. 

Consequently, a key recommendation from the Climate Change Committee is to free up agricultural land, primarily by reducing meat consumption with the aim of cutting emissions, stabilising  critical carbon sinks and restoring ecosystems. 

However, the previous government has rolled back progress on net zero (cynically claiming a 48 per cent reduction in emissions without accounting for a further 23 per cent offshored) feigning concern over affordability while ignoring warnings of the imminence of climate tipping points beyond which humanity is lost.

The disregard of such warnings from experts, ranging from IPCC, the Climate Change Committee, Nasa and every university climate research unit in the world, has been due in no small part to the undue influence of delayists from the oil-funded fossil-fuel lobbyists of Tufton Street and the short-termism born of a five-year electoral cycle towards the end of which one tends to see long-term policy replaced with a populist agenda geared to electoral gain. 

It is hoped that a Labour government will not be swayed by these siren voices and will heed the urgent calls for action.

A rise of 4°C, which the Climate Change Committee agrees that we are heading towards without action on climate and the environment, will lead to the complete desertification of anything below the 50th parallel and the eradication of global breadbaskets. 

Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at the University of California, warns that such a temperature rise would lead to a “one in 20 chance of human extinction.” I doubt whether even the most fervent delayer would board a plane if there was a one in 20 chance of a crash.

Indeed, a recent Chatham House Report  warns that, “any relapse or stasis in emissions reduction policies could lead to a plausible worst case of 7°C of warming by the end of the century.” 

The chances of humanity surviving in such a world would be slight. 

Co-benefits

But it doesn’t have to be that way. The other tipping point, that of political will, is one which would herald a bright new clean and secure future with renewable power generation that is at least nine times less expensive than that of fossil fuels, the health benefits of clean air and job security. 

The Green New Deal roadmap suggests achieving net zero would create 28.6 million more long-term, full-time jobs than are lost, and as (CAN Bill supporter) Chris Skidmore independent review pointed out: “Job returns on investments in nature-based solutions (like tree planting or peat restoration projects) are high in comparison to other sectors in the economy; on average, investments in nature-based solutions have around 10 times the job creation rate of investments in fossil fuels.”

Costings

Under current policies, the total cost of climate change damages to the UK are projected to increase from 1.1 per cent of GDP at present to 3.3 per cent by 2050 (with an exponential and irreversible decline as tipping points bite). Under the pathway to net zero emissions in the UK, recommended by the Climate Change Committee, the cost of this transition is estimated at less than 1 per cent of GDP (£1.3 trillion) over 30 years: the choice, a proverbial “no-brainer.”

Conclusion

Having been reluctant to frighten the horses in the run-up to the election, the new Labour government now has the heft and moral authority to truly serve the will and wellbeing of the people.

The Climate and Nature Bill builds on two ambitious pledges from previous Conservative governments: staying within Britain’s fair share of the global carbon budget for 1.5°C (Paris 2015) and halting and reversing nature loss by 2030 (Montreal 2022).

Current laws (Climate Change Act 2008 and Environment Act 2021) are insufficient to meet these goals. The Bill seeks to make these targets legally binding, offering the Labour government a chance to uphold these commitments,

Their manifesto is encouraging: “Labour will deliver for nature, [...] and will work in partnership with civil society, communities and business to restore and protect our natural world.” And Labour’s voting record in the last Parliament — on reversing nature loss by 2030, and committing to 1.5°C — is encouraging. 

However, it must also have the courage to reverse its decision to allow new North Sea exploration. Existing reserves and production are more than enough as we transition. According to UK Oil & Gas Authority data, it takes an average of 28 years for an exploration licence to lead to oil and gas production and licences given now may not be contributing to supply until the 2040s or 2050s, during which British fossil fuel usage is to be largely phased out and investors will be left with stranded assets.

The Climate and Nature Bill, introduced by Dr Roz Savage MP (Lib Dems) on October 16, has returned to Parliament. Savage, a committed environmental campaigner and record-breaking solo ocean rower, is supported by 11 cross-party co-sponsors. The Bill’s second reading is set for Friday January 24, requiring 102 MPs’ votes to advance to the committee stage.

If enacted, the Bill would show we are taking responsibility for our global impact and ensure that Britain develops an integrated plan to address the interconnected crises of climate and nature devastation with a unified strategy calling for cuts in emissions to align with 1.5°C limits while reversing the decline in nature by 2030 with measurable targets.

And by engaging the public through the CAN Bill’s proposed climate and nature assembly, it would provide for a just transition with provisions to ensure no-one is left behind in the envisioned cleaner, healthier and more prosperous future for all. 

At the recent Innovation Zero conference, Claire Coutinho MP, former secretary of state for energy security and net zero, dismissed the notion of “investor certainty,” bizarrely branding it an impediment to a thriving enterprise economy.

In stark contrast, Ed Miliband MP, her successor, speaking from the same platform, declared investor confidence central to Labour’s plans, another key plank of the CAN Bill. He also pledged that under a Labour government, addressing the climate and environmental emergency will be a comprehensive effort involving every government department.

We can only hope that they remain true to their promise, facilitate the CAN Bill’s passage, and ensure that Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs are equal partners in its implementation.

Keir Starmer has replaced the captain of the Titanic just in time but he needs to rearrange more than the deck chairs. As the Prime Minister said ahead of Cop26, “the eyes of the world [were] on the UK” to see if we would “back up” our international commitments. Now, the eyes of the country are on his administration. Will they support the Climate and Nature Bill at its second reading on January 24 2025?