AUSTRALIA captain Pat Cummins says it is “less likely than likely” that he will be fit for the Ashes series opener against England next month.

The fast bowler is recovering from lumbar bone stress in his lower back and has not played since July, although he has resumed running in training.

The 32-year-old faces a race to be fit for the first Test in Perth on November 21, but admits he may be prepared to gamble with his fitness given the significance of the series.

Cummins, who said he planned to resume bowling drills next week, told Cricket Australia’s official website: “You’d want at least probably a month in the nets.

“If you play a Test match, you want to make sure you’re right to bowl 20 overs in a day and you don’t have to really think about it.

“So four weeks is pretty tight, but I think somewhere around that mark. I’m running today and running kind of every second day, and each run is a little bit longer.

“[Then I] get into bowling prep next week. [It’s] probably a couple of weeks away before I’m actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on turf.

“With these things, it’s pretty hard to go from not bowling or doing anything at all to suddenly playing five Tests.

“So first steps are trying to give [me] a shot at being right, and then we’ll work it out.”

Cummins said that Australia’s reduced schedule at the start of 2026 meant he may gamble more than he would usually be prepared to with his fitness.

“Next year isn’t as busy as other years, there’s a T20 World Cup [in February-March] but the bulk of Test matches aren’t until later in the year,” he said.

“There’s a little bit of that aspect [taking more risk]. This is the big series in this next six to 12-month block, but you’ve got to weigh that up against taking stupid risks as well that might cost you in the long-term.”

Former Australia opener David Warner believes Cummins’s likely absence could swing the result of the first Test in England’s favour but still backed a comfortable home win.

The 38-year-old, best known in Ashes cricket for his repeated dismissals at the hands of Stuart Broad, told reporters Down Under: “If Cummo’s there, 4-0. If the captain doesn’t play, they might win one game.

“There’s going to be a washout somewhere, it’s generally Sydney.”

Warner was a regular on-field antagonist in his playing days but has warned against riling up England captain Ben Stokes.

“If we can sort of not poke that bear and get him up and about, I think that will help the Australians enormously,” he said.

“I had the fortunate privilege to share a changing room with him when he was younger and he has evolved into a serious cricketer and a fantastic leader.

“I do want to see some bantering out on the field and I want to see them going at each other a little bit — obviously not at Stokes — because that is what creates that energy and involvement in the game.”