ON CURRENT trends and despite recent turmoil, pollsters are telling us that 2024 seems on course to produce a Labour-led government (at least).

The Tory Party seems likely to be punished for its eugenics and corruption during Covid, the collapse of public services and the economic incompetence of the Liz Truss period.
 
Issues over how best to continue union-building work in a climate that unions have not had to navigate for 14 years will now come to the fore for many organisations.
 
We are in an urgent debate over how best unions can avoid the expectation of blank cheque loyalty on every issue that will arise from the party, especially when the shine wears off — and how in the meantime unions resist being policed by Labour. Simply put, will unions choose the role of critical ally or uncritical cheerleader? And what might that look like in 2024 compared to 1997?
 
A bit of 1997-era history is worthwhile. In 1997 we could have done anything. New Labour was elected with a majority of 179 on a wave of anti-Tory sentiment after 18 years in opposition.

For much of that time, trade unions had adopted the “dented shield” approach, retreating from conflict with employers, and stepping back from industrial campaigning as we waited for a Labour government to arrive and get us off life support.