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BEFORE we enter the final third of the flat racing season, we have a few weekends of racing that are below the normal high standard we have witnessed through the summer season and with the ever-changing patterns promising a forecast of wet weather, us punters have to be very much on our guard as far as ground conditions are concerned. To my mind, this is always the biggest factor in determining the outcome of races, but particularly at handicap level.

As such, the threat of thunderstorms can either make or break the conditions at any given race course this weekend, with Goodwood perhaps the most vulnerable. The Sussex Downs track is predicted to have plenty of rain, from Friday night into today, and indeed will need it in order to change the current going description of good to firm (good in places) on this well-draining course.

The feature event is the Group Two Celebration Mile at 3.10 with a healthy field of nine set to go to post. Zavateri makes a quick reappearance following a distant fifth of 14 behind the impressive Notable Speech in the Group One City of York Stakes and as his previous run in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury also suggested, the son of Without Parole is now crying out for a return to a mile. It is well worth remembering that this will be only his fourth three-year-old start and I make him the main danger to my selection, the more exposed six-year-old NAQEEB.

The Julie Camacho-trained charge is consistency personified this season, following a win in the Listed Foundation Stakes over a mile-and-a-quarter 11 months ago, while in three starts this season he has run Boiling Point to a short head here in May and then run an absolute cracker when just under three lengths off Zeus Olympios in the Summer Mile Stakes at Ascot. On that occasion, the selection wasn’t the beneficiary of a very good ride from Ryan Sexton as his partner didn’t set fast enough fractions and was therefore vulnerable to the finishers, with a better kick inside the final quarter-mile.

I am hoping that his jockey will have learned from that run and try to stretch his rivals from somewhat out as they freewheel down the hill around the home turn.

The big seven-furlong handicap class two event has £100,000 up for grabs and if the ground stays on the fast side of good, then course and distance winner Darkness could well roll back the years for trainer David O’Meara. Any significant rain, though, could help the likes of fellow eight-year-old and well-handicapped Rhoscolyn and the likely favourite, the very progressive FORTY YEARS ON (2.00). 

This four-year-old bay filly has visited the track on only the six occasions, winning four times and has shown that she is well suited to a bit of dig in the ground. It was probably a race with little strength in depth that she won last time out at Newbury from Brian off a mark of 88, but she did in the style of a filly set contest group race later in the year and an 8lbs penalty may not stop her here as she is likely to get a lovely tow into this contest. The daughter of Mayson gets the vote over Rare Change, worth a second career run over this trip, and the well-treated Galeron who may just need this outing having been on the sidelines for 84 days mainly due to the prevailing fast ground conditions.

Later on, I shall also be having an investment on the likes of LORD MELBOURNE (2.35) if the rain arrives in time, and the well handicapped KYLIAN in the sprinting finale at 4.55.

The first named is looking very well handicapped on the best of his soft ground form off a mark of 96 and has a good record on undulating tracks, while the last named should get a lovely tow into the five-furlong, class two sprint with an absolute load of speed on early doors.

The other big British meeting of the day is at Sandown Park, which is also expected to receive some rain, but the actual amount is rather uncertain. As long as there is no sting in the surface, I expect a huge run from TRIBAL CHIEF (2.15) in the class two, mile-and-a-quarter handicap.

The David Menuisier-trained gelding has some four-and-a-half lengths to find with Crown of Oaks on their Ascot form last autumn, but is a full 10lbs better off with that rival for that defeat.

PACIFIC MISSION (2.50) could be the value call in the Group Three Atalanta Stakes against the tight favourite Moon Target. The last named certainly has the best form in the book, with her two lengths fourth of nine behind Precise in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, followed by a two-and-a-quarter lengths third of eight to the top-class Blue Bolt in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville some 25 days ago. But I think we have yet to see the best of the selection, who may well be better suited to the stiffer nature of the track this afternoon.

Away from Britain, there is a superb card at the Curragh this afternoon and a modicum of rain is expected there as well. I am really keen on TOSCA NO CANDIS (1.53) from an in-form yard turning over Exceptionally. The tip got the job done nicely in a maiden at Dundalk last time out and was always going to improve as the season went on.

Further down the card, also have a second look at the filly VELOZEE (3.03) in receipt of 8lbs from the Coventry Stakes winner Great Barrier Reef in the Round Tower Stakes.

It is Windsor’s big meeting in the late afternoon/early evening and the Listed August Stakes could go the way of SILAWI (6.30) although, if the Berkshire track misses the rain, then Ghostwriter looks a huge danger.

At Chepstow, I also like the look of handicap debutant Q T BOY (6.15). The David Evans-trained charge was way too free on his last run at Ffos Las and could be worth another chance off an opening mark of just 58.