POLITICAL parties reacted to a new poll for the May Senedd election today showing that the first minister could lose her seat.

Eluned Morgan is expected to lose her seat in the upcoming Senedd election, according to the latest ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University opinion poll.

The poll by YouGov also predicts how many seats each party will win in each of the 16 new Senedd super-constituencies.

Plaid Cymru’s support has dropped four points to 33 per cent but is still on course to be the largest party with 43 seats.

Reform UK has closed the gap on Plaid after increasing its share to 27 per cent since the last poll, which translates to 30 seats.

“This poll points to a narrowing in the race for largest party between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK since the last ITV Cymru poll,” says Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre.

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “This May’s Senedd election is very much a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.”

Welsh Labour is third on 13 per cent, which could result in 12 seats, but would lose Ms Morgan in her Ceredigion Penfro constituency.

A Welsh Labour source said: “This poll is obviously disappointing but doesn’t reflect what we’re hearing on the doors.

“There’s work to do, but we have a record of delivering for Wales.”

The Welsh Greens’ 12 per cent could yield them 10 seats, while the Welsh Conservatives at 7 per cent teeter on the brink of being wiped out in the Senedd.

The strong showing for the Greens means for the first time since devolution 27 years ago there would be a majority within the Senedd of parties supporting independence.