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Latest poll puts Reform in the lead for the Senedd
Party leader Nigel Farage (left) and Head of policy Zia Yusuf during a Reform UK press conference at the Royal Horseguards Hotel, London, September 22, 2025

THE far-right Reform UK party has gained a seven-point lead over Labour in Senedd voting intentions, with Plaid Cymru a further point behind, according to a survey published today.

The poll was conducted by Beaufort Research for news website Nation.Cymru and was based on 533 respondents across Wales.

It puts Reform on 30 per cent, Welsh Labour on 23 per cent, Plaid Cymru on 22 per cent, the Conservatives on 11 per cent, Welsh Greens on 9 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 4 per cent.

The survey used a smaller sample size than last month’s YouGov/Barn Cymru poll for ITV Wales, which had Plaid Cymru as the largest party with 30 per cent.

The ITV Wales poll was of 1,232 voters and had Reform second on 29 per cent, the Welsh Labour Party on 14 per cent and Conservatives on 11 per cent —  the same level of support as in the latest survey.

The outcome of the Senedd Caerphilly by-election, which takes place tomorrow, will give some indication as to whether the opinion polls are correct.

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