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Trump tariffs hold back Scotland’s economy, says think tank
Coins in a Saltire purse

SCOTLAND’S economic slowdown is “particularly” linked to trade tariffs levied by Donald Trump, experts warned today as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer cosies up to the US president.

Economists at the Fraser of Allander Institute think tank have downgraded forecasts for Scottish growth in their latest commentary, pointing to “higher global uncertainty, particularly from the announcement of tariffs in the US and elsewhere” as well as rising inflation.

Noting Scottish real GDP grew 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 0.7 for the UK as a whole, the report added: “Lower growth in Scotland has persisted, leading to a weaker recovery from the pandemic than the UK generally.”

Institute director Professor Mairi Spowage said: “After a strong start to the year, the Scottish economy has faltered in March and April and is essentially the same size in real terms as it was six months ago.

“Unfortunately, the wider business environment and global events are still taking a toll.”

Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes responded: “It is clearer than ever that Scotland’s economy is being impacted by challenging global trading conditions and uncertainty — conditions mirrored across the rest of the UK.

“We need decisive action from the UK government to counter the damaging economic impacts of Brexit and business uncertainty.

“This includes reversing its decision to increase employers’ National Insurance contributions which, as the Scottish Chambers of Commerce has highlighted, is severely damaging business confidence, investment, growth and jobs.”

But Sir Keir, meanwhile, sucked up to Trump, telling BBC Radio 4 of how they “have a good relationship” and had connected “in the national interest,” adding: “I think I do understand what anchors the president, what he really cares about.

“For both of us, we really care about family and there’s a point of connection there.”

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