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MOST of us punters put a different weighting on certain factors when assessing a race and trying to find a selection whether it be trainer in form, distance, going, class and whether a horse is progressing or regressing, but this weekend one of the biggest factors, especially at Newbury, will be the weather.

At the time of writing on Thursday the going on the chase track is good to soft. Yesterday brought some sharp showers, but Saturday could offer up an absolute deluge of rain and that could change the make-up of the card massively with my particular punting eye on the feature race of the meeting, the Gold Cup at 2.55.

Several of those at the top of the market for this prestigious race wouldn’t want too much rain including Hyland, Inch House, The Changing Man and to a lesser extent Victtorino. The favourite Myretown will have no such problem with the likely change in the ground and probably remains a well-handicapped chaser despite a 15lbs hike in the weights for making all in the Festival Trophy Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and being significantly worse off at the weights with The Changing Man. Although it has to be said looking back at the form of that race it was hardly a good strength in depth renewal and this bigger event is a totally different kettle of fish.

Current second favourite, Resplendent Grey won’t have a problem with conditions and the more of an attritional test this extended three-and-a-quarter mile contest becomes, the more it is in his favour, having come home like a rocket up the Sandown Park hill in the Gold Cup over nearly three-and-three-quarter miles.

But with a massive and maximum 24 runners in the field, there is a good argument to seek more value in this event with bookmakers sure to be offering extended place terms of five and possibly six places, so do shop around.

I will be backing two in the race, the first of which is the 2024 Irish Grand National winner INTENSE RAFFLES. Following that gritty win at Fairyhouse off a mark of 140 the Irish raider ran a cracking second to subsequent Aintree Grand National winner Nick Rockett in the Bobbyjo Chase, after which he was pulled up in the Liverpool contest after not really taking to the fences. However, us punters have a distinctly short memory and it is worth recalling he was one of the gambles leading up to that famous contest going off joint fifth favourite at only 14/1.

Since then, the seven-year-old has come back with a nice warm-up race in the chase over two-and-three-quarter miles at Clonmel and should be spot on for this off a mark of 154.

The recent Gold Cup winner, Panic Attack, bids to bag another big prize just two weeks on from that Cheltenham win, but having looked through that contest again I am not sure that this three-and-a-quarter miles will be within her compass (Harry Skelton rides at Newcastle instead) especially with the impending rains and I would much rather have a back-up bet on KATATE DORI.

Following his resounding Kempton Park win off a rating of 125, he was pulled up behind Myretown at Cheltenham which I think was merely an afterthought following a fairly busy season and connections drew stumps for the campaign. A run over hurdles here three weeks ago should have set him up nicely for this and with regular rider Dylan Johnston again in the saddle could run well of his nice racing weight equivalent to a rating of 134. 

Best of the other Irish raiders could well be O’Moore Park, beaten three-and-a-half lengths by Oscars Park and that horse has since gone on to win a Grade Two event and we can expect a bit of improvement from the Willie Mullins-trained eight-year-old stepping back up in trip.

With the weather forecast very much to the forefront of my mind, I shall also be having a decent wager on JAVERT ALLEN (3.35) in the two-mile handicap chase. All of his best form has come with plenty of juice in the ground and he is merely a pound higher than when just unable to get to that good yardstick Dr TJ Eckleburg at Chepstow. He had a lovely breeze over the Mildmay fences at Aintree first time up and should be ready to reproduce his best form here, albeit in a slightly deeper event.

There are some interesting young hurdlers in action in the intermediate event at 2.15, none more so than LIVE CONTI who impressed on his three starts last season. I know that Dan Skelton feels that he could be up to graded company this season, so if his esteemed trainer is right then the four-year-old needs to be winning this off a mark of 139.

Over at Newcastle the big question is whether Constitution Hill can relight his former glories when he returns to action in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. His jumping let him down badly at the back end of last season at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. Nicky Henderson reports him back in rude health, but that is not a solid enough reason on its own to support him with my hard earned. It goes without saying if he is within 10lbs of his best form, then he would put his four rivals to the sword here.

The play for me has to be the new kid on the block THE NEW LION (2.00) who went through his novice season unbeaten in four runs and has a tremendous attitude to his racing. His biggest danger may well be the Willie Mullins trained Anzadam who showed a high level of form last year when winning two grade three events at Fairyhouse and Naas, both in a canter. This is obviously his sternest test to date this afternoon.

The three mile and five furlongs of the handicap chase at 1.25 will take some getting even on this relatively sound surface. Top weight Tommy Beau takes a drop in class and the handicapper is finally relenting, but the 10-year-old will surely do well to give the weight away to THE BIG BREAC who is a pound out of the handicap and in receipt of some 24lbs from the Seamus Mullins-trained veteran.

Always likely to make a better staying chaser than hurdler (rated as high as 96) that view was cemented to a degree when a well punted 2/1 favourite on his chasing debut he led nearly all the way to land a minor contest off 96 on his fencing debut at Wetherby.

He is 8lbs higher here and obviously in a much better contest, but the extra distance will be a plus and he could well take the needed next step forward here.

Earlier on, JUST GOLDEN (12.50) should relish the step up to two-and-three-quarter miles in The French Furze Novices Hurdle, while SERIOUS OPERATOR (2.35) is beginning to look seriously well weighted off a mark of 123 and can make the most of the weight differential with Homme Public.

I am sure that we have yet to see the very best of MIRAZUR WEST (Fairyhouse, 12.44) and he may make the most of his rating of 138 in the extended two-mile Listed handicap Chase here with Gavin Cromwell trained Crescent Moon being his biggest danger.

At Bangor, NEWTON TORNADO (12.37) may well make up for his recent fall at Cheltenham (fell four out when in contention) when he runs off a 6lbs lower mark in this staying handicap chase, while ITS EASY (12.02) is the call in the mares handicap chase for Evan Williams.

There is some competitive if low-grade racing under the lights at friendly Wolverhampton racecourse this evening and the best wager to my eyes has to be the lightly raced handicap debutant RAVENS KING (8.30) in the concluding mile-and-a-half contest.