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YOU would have thought that the weekend before the Cheltenham Festival the action this afternoon would be rather low-key, but there are some cracking bets up and down the country especially at Sandown Park and on the level at Wolverhampton on the all-weather Tapeta surface.
Let’s start at the Esher track where the big betting race will be 16-runner Imperial Handicap Hurdle at 2.25 with the layers likely to offer at least 5/1 the field. The Ben Pauling trained Jipcot is right up there at the top of the market place following an easy win at Huntingdon last time out off a mark of 117. However, I think that race fell apart around him and a 7lbs penalty does seem rather harsh when you consider this is a big step up in class in a much bigger field of runners with much more strength in depth.
So where does the value lie? Well with the ground set to dry out a bit more, despite hardly spring time temperatures in the region, Bad must have claims following his strong running second last time out, but I’m not sure that this stiff uphill finish will be his cup of tea. He looked all over the winner turning for home, but he still travels quite freely and he cannot afford to do that here.
Go Dante was a cracking third in the Hurdle and his mark of 129 seems playable in this less classy affair, but Knickerbockerglory was sixth at Newbury and is probably held by the assessor. That leads me to one of the big outsiders, SHARED, under the care of Harry Derham.
This relatively lightly raced five-year-old has been knocking on the door of late after finishing down the field last year at the Cheltenham Festival. His three runs at Chepstow (twice) and Newbury have seen him run through the line very strongly after getting behind the leaders, and if his regular partner Paul O’Brien can get him into a nice rhythm, nothing will be finishing better up the final punishing climb at the Esher course this afternoon. At around 33/1 what is there not to like about his claims as he should be stronger in his fifth year and will get the pace in the race he needs to travel well in behind.
Of the remainder of the races on the card, the one that catches my eye is the Novices Hurdle Final at 1.50 which is always a race to follow and normally features some future starts over fences. I have always been onside with outsider High Treason (improved for the use of a tongue strap last time out), and he could be the main danger to my selection PIC ROC who landed a really good looking novices hurdle at Ascot with the well-regarded Inthewaterside in second, and the hugely promising Juventus de Brion a closing third. He should enjoy this stiffer test and I still feel is fairly treated off a mark of 123.
SUNSET MARQUESA (3.00) could prove to be of each-way value in the mares Listed bumper against the likes of Bellas Bridge and 17 length Carlisle winner Just Call Me Lucy under the care of Mark Walford. TERRESITA (3.35) finally came good at Ludlow last time out after failing to see out the three miles at Huntingdon, and in receipt of bundles of weight she has solid claims of turning over the two top weights Golden Sun and the hat-trick seeking Kotmask.
At Wolverhampton there are some nice prizes up for grabs with the Lincoln Trial Handicap at 3.15 top of my shopping list. Top weight Tacarib Bay finished on the heels of the leaders last year, but following a win in the Listed Wentworth Stakes at Newcastle is now back up to a rating of 105, a pound higher than 12 months ago.
Of the light weights you could make a solid argument for the likes of King’s Code and Smoky Mountain (closely matched on previous Southwell form), but the nod goes to the old man SIR BUSKER (nap). The now eight-year-old held his form well last year in a slightly higher grade and William Knight has been very shrewd in booking the 5lbs claimer Brandon Wilkie which brings his mark down to 98, his lowest ever handicap rating.
SIEMPRE ARTURO ran a cracking race off a short break when just outstayed by Alrazeen at Southwell when probably just needing the run. The son of Outstrip should have learnt plenty from that — only his third career outing — and is taken to defy top weight off a rating of 70 before being raised in class.
LAFAN (4.25) has been in good form since his comeback including a staying on third at Chelmsford and with plenty of pace in this race he can be waited on by Liam Keniry before pouncing down the short home stretch to see off his likely biggest danger At Liberty. The last named was a smooth winner over two and a half furlongs further last time out. The selection is only 3lbs higher than for his last success.
I fancy that there is plenty more to come from KNEBWORTH (5.00) this year and can make a winning 2024 debut in a competitive six furlong handicap, while MR TIBBS (6.40) can make a late rush in the three-year-old handicap under the massively underrated Finlay Marsh.
The Listed two-mile handicap chase at Gowran Park (3.55) looks a fair renewal and Willie Mullins and owner Rich Rici have the top two weights in the form of Figaroc and Feu du Bresil, but slight preference is for the lighter weighted CAYD BOY. Lizzie Doyle’s charge has fallen 14lbs in the handicap in less than a year and will appreciate the drop to two miles after not getting to grips when second to Kings Halo at Naas last time out.