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WE ARE going to be under the unreal scenario that the going at free draining Ascot could be softer than the home of winter heavy ground at Haydock Park for two cracking national hunt meetings this afternoon.

The main event at Ascot, the Grade One Clarence House Stakes (3.30), has an enormous amount to live up to since the great Desert Orchid battled to glory way back in 1989 through such famous winners as Viking Flagship, Well Chief, Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre, a hat-trick of wins from Un De Sceaux and of course that amazing win of Shishkin when he ran down Energumene in 2022.

This time around, we have a fascinating field of four with the upwardly mobile Thistle Crack set to put it down to his three rivals from the off. The Skelton charge has risen through the ranks at amazing speed and having started the season rated 115 he now finds himself lodged off 158, but that is still a full 14lbs off the likely odds on favourite IL ETAIT TEMPS. I am never one to risk my money on an odds-on shot, but this late maturing eight-year-old will be desperately hard to topple here with the race set up for him by his progressive rival.

Last year’s winner Jonbon looks on the downgrade and if Bryan Carver rides Gidleigh Park with a bit more restraint, I think he could test the Irish raider. He ran as if he needed the run when soundly beaten by Jango Baie in the 1965 Chase over half a mile further at the back end of November, the form of which has been handsomely cemented since. That run should have brought him to a peak and I expect the Harry Fry trained runner to make the market leader work for his money here.

Dropped 2lbs back to a mark of 123 I expect a better run from Eyed in the three-mile handicap chase at 1.00, but this race has plenty of depth to it with eleven set to go to post. Top weight Outlaw Pete had a nice blow out at Newbury last time out and the step up to three miles could well help his cause. Welcome to Cartries showed great guts to get home narrowly at Sandown Park and only has a 4lbs penalty to carry here, but the value nod goes to the very lightly raced LAGANHILL. 

The selection was beaten some 16 lengths by The Jukebox Kid at Carlisle earlier this season, the two of them slugging it out from some way out. Purely on a 9lbs turnaround at the weights, the selection still has plenty on his plate, but since then I loved the way that he stayed on to finish second at Bangor behind Newton Tornado and he should now be ready for a peak career performance off a nice racing weight on ground he should relish.

Dan Skelton has done really well to get Nurse Susan back to her best with the mare being a notoriously fragile sort to keep sound down through the years. The Warwickshire based handler has always thought plenty of this mare and she readily ran down Jubilee Alpha at Sandown Park last time out. However, that run was over two-and-a-half miles and she only really got on top in the final 75 yards. Back to a bare two miles, and despite the stiff nature of the Berkshire course, I think that she could be quite vulnerable to LA CONQUIERE in this Listed event at 1.40.

Still looking green on only her fourth career start, second over timber, the Jamie Snowden mare was still good enough to see off Charisma Cat at Newbury despite running very freely through the first half mile of the contest. Taking on her elders and more experienced rivals here, it goes without saying that she will need to settle better, but there is no doubting that she has the latent talent to deal with this uplift in class.

Of the other races on the card I shall also be having a play in the 2m5f Handicap Chase. Vincenzo keeps on going up in the weights for being beaten albeit in some of the best handicap chases at the trip. His chance is there for all to see but he is probably the right price in the market place at around the 3/1 mark and a better value bet could well be on the old boy FUGITIF (2.20). 

All of his best form has been on soft ground and now that he is reaching the veteran stage, the handicapper has begun to relent, his mark having dropped from 148 down to 135 in the past year. The 11-year-old has also undergone a breathing operation which should help him and I think he can see off Vincenzo and the top weight, Old Roan Chase winner Hitman.

The Peter Marsh Chase (Haydock, 2.00) is the big betting race at the Merseyside track this afternoon and all betting eyes will probably be on Konfusion and Myretown. The last named fell when in the early lead in the Gold Cup and connections will be very happy that there is little further rain forecast. Konfusion is on the upgrade and eased home to win a below par Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. However, he will need to take a big step forward here under a 9lbs penalty and last year’s second, RICHMOND LAKE could well surprise them both.

He ran well behind the progressive Deep Cave on his seasonal debut, form given a huge boost since, and then found two-and-a-half miles too sharp at Aintree behind Uncle Bert. Another one to have undergone a breathing operation since, the 10-year-old has dropped 3lbs in the weights this year so is set to run off a 5lbs lower mark than 12 months ago when he ran Mr Vango to three-and-a-quarter lengths.

Stay Away Fay, whose form has fallen down a deep hole could be interesting if there is a move in the market for him in the staying handicap hurdle off a career low mark of 131. But in receipt of plenty of weight from the Paul Nicholls charge I fancy a huge run from DALSTON LAD (2.35) on his first try over this staying trip. I was really impressed by his success over half a mile shorter at Sedgefield last time out and an opening handicap mark of 121 looks very fair.

Finally elsewhere have a second look at THE CRAFTYMASTER (12.05, Lingfield) who didn’t get the run of the race last time out and HARBOUR ISLAND (12.55 Taunton).

The last named ran Mydaddypaddy to just over four lengths at Carlisle first time out and then ran way below that form at Newbury last time out. I think he is worth another chance against inferior rivals here upped in trip.