THE final calm before the Kempton Park, Leopardstown and Christmas racing holiday storm centres around Ascot and Haydock Park this afternoon with unseasonably better ground at the Berkshire track and as per normal a testing surface at the Merseyside course.

The Grade One Howden Long Walk Hurdle is the feature race of the day at Ascot and it is nice to see a good entry of 11 set to line up. It was in this very event last year that staying chaser Beauport ran one of his best races over timber when leading most of the way before succumbing to Crambo and Hiddenvalley Lake between the final two flights. I suspect that Tom Bellamy will employ the same front running tactics on the nine-year-old as Sam Twiston-Davies did last year and try to pull the finishing spurts out of his rivals in what looks a much better renewal 12 months on. That view is backed up by the betting with Crambo put in as a top priced 10/1 and with no less than eight rivals ahead of him in the market place.

The two drying days forecast were yesterday and tomorrow and that could leave the ground gluey and hard to run through so only strong stayers need apply. That could well count against Impose Toi who had the run of the race at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle last time out and has yet to have his stamina tested to the max.

Gordon Elliott’s Honest Policy is totally unexposed over this trip and returns following a break of 234 days following his second to Jasmin de Vaux in the Grade One staying novice hurdle at Punchestown. Still only a five-year-old, he apparently surprised his handler with the progress he made last year and this race will decide his short-term aims and of those of some of his stable mates as well. Should he win this race with authority I suspect the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle will be on the agenda which would then cement the aim of Wodhooh for Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham. Should he blow out here then the mare would then become a consideration for the three-miler on the Thursday of the festival.

I think it would be some training feat for the County Meath trainer to have him spot on for this and a better percentage call at the prices could well be the French raider JET BLUE (2.25). He was given an absolutely horrendous ride in the Stayers Hurdle in March after flying to victory in the Albert Bartlett the previous December. He took a lovely step forward from his opening run over 2m5f this autumn to running on late behind Losange Bleu in the Grade One Prix Serge Landon and this could well be his peak performance on what is only his ninth hurdles start and he is the forgotten horse in the field. Potter’s Charm is another improver to note on only his second start at the trip, while the other Irish raider Colonel Mustard, even at the age of 10, could take another step forward stepping up to this trip for the very first time.
 

The Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase is the big betting race of the day with some cracking prize money up for grabs. Henry’s Friend beat Blow Your Wad by three lengths in the Sodexo Gold Cup over the course and distance on the first day of November and is now some 3lbs better off at the weights. However, I am not so sure that is the strongest line of form on offer and I would much rather side with Johnnywho and DEEP CAVE (3.00). Last first named was a 12/1 shot last week, but has since been found in the market, but the selection remains a double figure price in places and has a lovely racing weight here, on a mark 4lbs higher than when recording a smooth success in a class two event at Bangor first time out. The one slight question mark against his name is that most of his best performances have come going left handed, but I cannot leave him alone off this mark with the prospect of plenty more improvement to come off a rating of 139.

The two-mile Ascot Rotary Club Festive Handicap Hurdle will probably determine whether Alexei follows the Champion Hurdle route this season. A smooth win in the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle over the course and distance off 139 was bettered substantially with a runaway success in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham where to a certain extent I thought the race almost fell into his pocket. I’m not saying he can’t win this off a new mark of 147, for he surely must do to even be considered in the periphery of Champion Hurdle class, but there is better value further down the weights in the form of WILFUL (3.35). This has quite obviously been a mid season aim for this fairly lightly raced six-year-old following just the one run this season when an excellent third to Celtic Dino in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, a race of course in which the aforementioned Alexei finished second.

Over at Haydock Park, the most interesting betting contest is the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase over an extended 25 furlongs and as per the Long Walk Hurdle and possibly to an even greater extent only stamina sapping mud lovers need apply. Velvet Elvis and Top of the Bill keep the weights down as both will carry a huge 12-2 off marks of 147 which will certainly be good news to the ears of trainer Nicky Richards as it will mean that last year’s third Famous Bridge has a fair racing weight of 11-4 and off a 2lbs lower mark than last year.

However, he will need to show a deal more spark than on his last two starts and LATENIGHTRUMBLE (2.05) may well offer more than a modicum of value at a double figure price. The eight-year-old is very lightly raced for a horse of his age and had no more than a pipe opener when running down the field behind Be Aware at Stratford over a trip way too short. On his two runs at Wetherby last year he looks more than adequately handicapped and just gets the nod over My Silver Lining. The mare has been given a great chance by the handicapper off a 2lbs lower mark then her win in the Warwick Classic last year when she held off Galia Des Liteaux.

LA ZOUBIDA (2.40) looks over priced in the Listed Novice Hurdle and I shall also be having an interest in NETYWELL (1.30) at an each-way price in the two-mile handicap chase.

Elsewhere, later on I will be having a close look at TINSEL (Wolverhampton, 5.15) who was a huge eye catcher following a slow start at Kempton Park over a mile and is bred to appreciate the extra yardage here, while LAW OF DESIGN (7.15) was a fair two-year-old and despite a wide draw here is handicapped to step up.