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THIS year’s Epsom Derby has endured one of the most unusual build-ups for many a year with the supposed horse of the 21st century blowing out in the 2,000 Guineas where the reasoning of getting upset in the stalls caused his demise. I can’t have that as he was beaten too far out after never travelling at any stage.

You digest and cogitate what you see on the track when you are about to invest your hard-earned cash and that image is very hard to shake off. On the other side of the coin, Aidan O’Brien is adamant that we didn’t see the real City of Troy that day and his subsequent work since suggests he is still the one to beat, backed up by the huge market support since that Newmarket classic.

I must admit to backing Los Angeles at 20/1 for this afternoon, but 7/2 is way, way too short now and I think he will need a major step forward here, any further rain will be in his favour and I have to be honest I am not the greatest fan of Wayne Lordan around Epsom.

So what is left? Well if you entirely trust the greatest trainer of modern times then you will more than likely roll in with the Ballydoyle maestro and 2/1 come 4.45 this afternoon could look absolutely huge.

But in horse racing it always pays never to be scared of one horse, maybe even two or three and I am happy to let the market leader win.

So where does the each-way value lie in this year’s Blue Riband? Well the weather forecast along with the quick drying track suggests that the most likely going will be good to soft.

Connections have openly admitted that impressive Lingfield Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly needs the ground to be on top to show his best form and the way that race unfolded I think fell right into his lap, and he may have been more than slightly flattered by that success.

And of the remaining runners I am struggling to find anything of substance, so I am going to go out on a limb here and tip up the 16/1 shot and once raced VOYAGE.

Richard Hannon has started the turf season in sensational form and you could readily argue that he has the best set of three-year-olds he or his esteemed father has ever trained and this boy could literally have been anything.

Based on my private ratings, the son of Golden Horn has about 26lbs to find with City of Troy, BUT that is based on the latter’s juvenile form and doesn’t build into the equation the next step forward from the selection. From his Newbury win the second and third have let the form down, but the fourth and fifth have opened their accounts since, so very mixed messages. What cannot be argued is that Voyage won that race doing hand stands and he will almost certainly take a huge step forward for both the experience and even more importantly the step up to a mile and a half especially if we get an end to end gallop.

The rest of the card at Epsom on derby day has always intrigued me with no other Group One events on the card which still doesn’t sit right with me. On the day of the UK’s most famous race, all we get is a couple of ordinary Group Three races and a handful of near impossible looking handicaps from the Dash over five furlongs to the Northern Dancer over the Derby course and distance.

So more than on any other big day race card, value of an each-way kind will continue to be the name of the game this afternoon at the Surrey track, and my best big price selection in the handicaps comes in the form of the Hong Kong Jockey Club Lester Piggott Handicap which kick starts the card at 1.25.

PORTSMOUTH was hugely impressive when landing an extended mile handicap here on April 23rd running through the line full of running off a mark of 80. His subsequent flop at Goodwood off 80 is readily forgiven as the ground was hock deep that day and he ran too freely through the first three-and-a-half furlongs getting little or no cover, and leading six furlongs out which is simply not his run style.

Set to run off 83 here and on much better ground, I fancy he can take another big step forward, with plenty of pace on up top and Oisin Murphy set to have him racing into a nice rhythm in midfield. I think he could be at least a 90s-plus horse.

Of his rivals, the Michael Bell-trained Prepschool is feared most if able to handle the track. This son of Camelot never got a shot at the leaders in the London Gold Cup at Newbury off what was a slack pace, but there is little doubt that he is way better than that run suggests. He is more exposed than the majority of his rivals, but when his stamina is unleashed eventually over 12 furlongs he will be seen at his best.

Later on, I think that the Aston Martin Dash Handicap (3.45) looks as difficult as always, but if, as his trainer says, Clarendon House is a possibly Nunthorpe horse then he has to go close to winning this, even off a mark of 111. He looks worth a saver at the very least, and stall 12 makes him a massive player.

But at a bigger price it is hard for me to get away from last year’s runner-up SILKY WILKIE. That afternoon he raced off a mark of 107 and this afternoon he is a massive 8lbs lower. His runs at Bath and Wolverhampton this year suggest that he retains all of his ability, and if getting better luck in running this year, he could be the one to stop the top weight in his tracks along with Dream Composer and Live In The Moment.

The Long Shot Northern Dancer Handicap at 5.15 I have always thought should be a hugely competitive and a high-class affair, but year in and year out the fields have generally disappointed me. This year, there has been a change, the five top weights are rated 100 or bigger with some interesting improvers further down.

There is bound to be a fast pace up top with Not So Sleepy and company set to line up and that could well suit the run style of THINK FIRST. Essentially what this four-year-old needs is one hell of a gallop up top so he can relax into his races, something he hasn’t got or done on his last two starts over the course and distance and at Ascot. Dropped 2lbs for those two very fair runs, I suspect he will run very close to the gold medal here if Ben Coen can get him settle in mid division before rousting him up from three furlongs out.

Elsewhere today have a second look at the likes of BULLS AYE (Musselburgh, 5.20), KING’S GAMBLE (Doncaster, 5.40) and TREMBLANT (Lingfield, 8.45). The last named looks nicely treated off top weight and despite a box two draw represents to my eyes one of the best bets of the day.