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SOME say the few weeks before Cheltenham is the calm before the storm, well this weekend bucks the trend as this is the monsoon before the Prestbury Park thunder. For it is the Dublin Festival over the weekend and although there are plenty of short priced favourites set to go to post, there is value hiding in the turf at Leopardstown if you look closely enough.
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle at 1.50 is arguably the most fascinating race of the afternoon as the Irish bid to try to shift Sir Gino from the head of the Triumph Hurdle market.
Storm Heart has been installed as the favourite this week at around the 13/8 mark and you cannot quibble with his timber topping debut when the son of Storm the Stars bolted up at Punchestown by fully 22 lengths. There may not have been much substance to the race but he was quite badly hampered at the fifth hurdle that day, before getting back on an even keel and fairly flying clear under the minimum of pressure.
This task though requires a whole lot more and the rival set to rattle his cage could come in the form of stable mate BUNTING who fired home at Limerick on his debut. The former French hurdler travelled very strongly through that contest and his hurdling was efficient as well. He looks a solid each-way alternative to the market leader.
Trainer Willie Mullins looks sure to have a cracking afternoon whichever of his battalion goes best in the Grade One juvenile, but his best chance at a fair price could come in the form of IL ETAIT TEMPS against the red hot favourite Marine Nationale in the Arkle Novice Chase at 2.25. Mullins also has Facile Vega in here, and declined to run Gaelic Warrior as was suggested.
The selection was readily beaten by his stable mate last time out, but I think he is a much better horse going left handed and 20/1 is way too big for him as the ratings suggest he is not too far behind the rest of the field with hopefully more improvement to come; I shall be having a lumpy each-way bet at the price.
Later on, the Listed Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle at 3.00 nearly always provides us with a significant mover or two in the market place, and with the layers offering 6/1 the field as I pen this piece, there is plenty of choice in this huge 24 runner field. But the one I like most at a massive price is STARZOV (nap). He has been very lightly raced over the past year only racing three times, twice over this trip at Aintree where he was far from disgraced behind the likes of West Balboa and Gentleman At Arms.
His mark has been reduced from 128 to 121 and I can see Darragh O’Keefe hunting him around in the midfield before making his strike for home up the final climb. For the record I make the likes of Music of Tara and Barry Connell’s Nine Graces as two of the main dangers.
It will be a big shock if GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is beaten in the feature Irish Gold Cup at 3.35 at odds-on and a better value play during the afternoon could well be HENN SEE off his light weight in the extended two-mile Listed Handicap Chase at 4.10. A tight 6/4 favourite on his last start, the seven-year-old simply ran too freely in the first half of that contest on very tacky ground and had nothing left in the tank turning for home. His opening mark of 123 looks very interesting here with a likely quicker pace on to help him settle in the first part of this valuable contest.
Mullins has four of the six entries in the Grade One Novice Hurdle at 1.20 and I confidently expect PREDATORS GOLD to come out on top here. He was predictably badly outpaced at the business end of the contest by Caldwell Potter five weeks ago over the minimum trip, but this more thorough test should prove right up his street.
There is plenty of other action outside of Dublin this afternoon with Sandown Park and Musselburgh attracting some good fields for some fierce handicaps. At the Edinburgh track, 13 runners are set to go to post for the Edinburgh National over the best part of four miles and the drying ground should certainly suit the very well treated Enrilo. However, I need to see more positive signs from the 10-year-old before he carries my hard earned cash, so the bet has to be the lightly raced feather weight INIS OIRR from the Lucinda Russell academy of staying chasers. He looked as though this kind of trip would be right up his street when staying on nicely at the back end of the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen, and this extra half mile should be perfect for this stamina laden gelding.
At the Esher track, HERMES ALLEN (2.35) can take the feature Scilly Isles Novice Chase now that he reverts to a more suitable trip and the big punting race of the day, the Heroes Handicap Hurdle (3.10) looks ripe for outsider WONDERWALL. I have always marked down this still unexposed son of Yeats as an out and out stayer. He was far from disgraced behind the smart Ginny’s Destiny over fences at Cheltenham, and then reverting to hurdles had no chance of surviving a rival falling in front of him at the fourth hurdle in the Lanzarote at Kempton Park. The assessor has left him on a mark of 128 for this and anything north of 20/1 with the enhanced placed terms on offer will do for me.
