Reform UK leader Nigel Farage during a press conference in Caerphilly as he announces Llyr Powell as the party candidate for the upcoming Caerphilly Senedd by-election, September 12, 2025
COMPETITION to become the largest party in Wales is turning into a neck-and-neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, new polling has indicated.
An ITV survey of voting intentions showed Plaid on 30 per cent and Reform close behind on 29 per cent, while Labour slumped to just 14 per cent.
Translating into seats after the Senedd election next May, Reform could have 37 members versus Labour’s 11.
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre said Reform’s growth is built “primarily on Conservative defections”, while Labour is “losing voters on multiple fronts — primarily to Plaid and the Greens, but also to a lesser extent to Reform — indicating broader challenges in holding together their traditional coalition.”
In England, Mason Humberstone, a Labour councillor for Old Town ward in Stevenage became the first in the country to defect to Reform UK yesterday.
