IT’S impossible to know how the crisis in the Tory Party will play itself out.

Anyone who tells you they do know is kidding someone — either themselves or you.

But we do know that Boris Johnson has been seriously wounded by the vote of no confidence. A Johnson backlash presents serious dangers to workers, to women and to all ethnic minorities.

We know that this is an extremely right-wing government — it is a great pity that much of the liberal press claimed Johnson as one of their own.

Perhaps that tells us more about them than about him. Unfortunately, too, even some on the left were hoodwinked by claims about ending austerity and being socially liberal.

Hardly anyone recycles that nonsense any more. Unfortunately, a little over two years of bitter experience of this government has dispelled all these illusions. It is the economic crisis and the misery it is causing that is driving the current situation.

The OECD has forecast zero GDP growth in this country next year, while the British Chambers of Commerce reckons we will be in recession before the year’s end.

Meanwhile, the surge in prices which began early in 2021 has been exacerbated by supply chain problems, sanctions and disruption from the war in Ukraine.

The toll of human misery is causing political turmoil across the world. In this country it threatens to force a very large number of Tory MPs out of their jobs at the next election.

It is this self-interest rather than any ideological crisis which is driving the turmoil in the Tory Party. “Partygate” is a perfectly justified conduit for popular anger.

It is a delusion to believe this government will tackle the runaway inequality and poverty, as the foolish reheated “right to buy” policy shows.

The real character of this government has been demonstrated by its economic policies which created the biggest cost-of-living crisis on record.

The government has also resorted to exceptionally repressive legislation, the latest being to use the National Security Bill to extend immunity from the law that has already been granted to the police and to the armed forces when operating overseas to official and civil servants issuing or carrying out such orders.

This includes immunity for the most crimes, including torture, rape and murder.

There is also a resort to increasingly heavy-handed policing, as we saw at the Sarah Everard vigil, but is now any everyday occurrence in many of our towns and cities. All the effective restrictions on draconian use of stop-and-search powers have been removed.

These powers are aimed at young black and Asian men and there is an obvious danger that we will return to the terrible days of “sus laws” and the inevitable conflict that brings.

It should also not be forgotten that this government’s Nationality and Borders Act is essentially inspired by the politics of Enoch Powell’s “send them back” demand, as British citizens whose parents were not both born here can be “deported” if they commit a crime, unlike their peers whose parents were.

This is aimed at about six or seven million of us, overwhelmingly black or Asian, who are now formally second-class citizens.

Since Johnson is so badly wounded, he is set to double down on all of these reactionary policies and more besides.

The sole priority for him is saving his own skin, as it always has been. That spells danger for the overwhelming majority of people in this country.

All of the indications are that he is already moving in that direction. The National Security Bill had its first reading last Monday, which adds to the slew of repressive legislation that has already been mentioned. It extends legal immunity for crimes to functionaries and civil servants.

At the same time, the government is again threatening to break the law by abrogating the Northern Ireland Protocol.

This has become an obsession of the Tory rightwingers, who, having claimed they “got Brexit done,” now want to unpick the deal they negotiated even at the risk of an all-out trade war and the certainty of no trade deal with the US while they are on this course.

The claim that there is massive disruption to the economy in the North of Ireland is patently untrue.

In the latest economic data most regions are preforming very badly, a long way below even their level before the pandemic. Yet that does not apply to Northern Ireland which is the second-best performing region, behind London (which is skewed by the boom in the City).

In reality, the anti-Protocol campaign allows the Tory Party to use reactionary unionism and marginalise internal dissent in pursuit of refighting old Brexit battles.

There is also now a major threat to trade unions in this country. After the union-busting at P&O it now seems as if some on the right is gearing up to outlaw strikes in the transport sector. This is in direct response to the imminent prospect of RMT and other rail unions taking strike action.

But leading Tories and even an editorial in Murdoch’s Times are calling for the implementation of a 2019 Tory manifesto commitment to outlaw transport strikes.

This would clearly be a very serious blow to all trade unions in this country if these plans materialise.

Naturally, this government will step up its divide-and-rule policies. The planned deportations to Rwanda are due to go ahead in a matter of days. The Home Office has effectively given up on all asylum applications except for Ukrainians — and is dragging its heels even on those.

In addition to legislation, the government has presided over increasingly brutal policing and not just its response to the Sarah Everard vigil.

This Saturday, some of us have come together in a Conference for the Black Child, which is taking place in Hackney but can be followed on both Twitter and Facebook.

The catalyst for the reviving a conference I used to host over many years was the appalling treatment of Child Q, who was strip-searched at school while on her period in response to the (false) allegation she was in possession of cannabis.

It has since emerged from freedom of information requests that there have been 13,000 such strip-searches over the last five years. Even this is partial data, as one-quarter of police forces did not reply.

The strip-searches are overwhelmingly inflicted on black children and disproportionately on young girls.

This is an outrage, but really is only one aspect of the discrimination and injustice our children face under this government.

This includes fewer resources for deprived schools, exclusions, lack of access to higher education, and the list goes on. All of this under a government which denies even the existence of institutional racism.

Lives, livelihoods and our fundamental rights are under threat from this government. So is the future of our children. The hopeful sign is that the opposition to the Tories is growing.

Diane Abbott is MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington. Follow her on Twitter: @HackneyAbbott.