AS Cop29 unfolds in Baku, parts of the world are burning and extreme flooding is decimating communities around the planet.

At the same time, we are witnessing the ascendancy of authoritarian leaders in thrall to the fossil fuel industries whose representatives have, like cuckoos in the nest, captured the conferences and used them as fig leaves for their real intention: the untrammelled expansion of their self-serving empires.

Founded in 1995, the Conference of the Parties (Cop) aimed to unite global leaders to track climate progress, set national goals, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Yet, nearly three decades later, atmospheric CO₂ is at record levels and is accelerating global heating. The evidence of unchecked climate change is clear: emissions keep rising, and extreme weather events are intensifying.

In the light of these stark figures, it was naturally thought that the world’s governments would act on what then was a consensus: that action was urgent.

Cop1 (Berlin, 1995): the foundational summit

In 1995, Cop1 began with optimism, as nations committed to emissions reductions based on the consensus that industrialised nations had a historical responsibility to lead.

The ambitious goal was to assess global climate action and strengthen commitments, but it became clear that existing measures fell far short. The consequent Berlin Mandate established a foundation, calling on developed countries to accept legal responsibility for their emissions with binding targets rooted in principles of climate justice.

Hopes were high. At the time of Cop 1, CO₂ atmospheric parts per million (ppm) had reached 360.

Cop2 (Geneva, 1996)

At Cop2, leaders and scientists met with renewed urgency to build on Cop1, aiming to translate scientific consensus into action and establish binding climate agreements. The summit endorsed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, which unequivocally linked human activity to climate change.

Expectations were high, but …

In 1996, the atmospheric CO₂ concentration had risen to 362 ppm.

Cop3 (Kyoto, 1997)

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted, requiring developed nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by set targets. It was a landmark agreement that set legally binding limits for the first time. Aspirations were serious, but …

In 1997, the atmospheric CO₂ concentration rose to 363 ppm and accelerated year on year.

Cop15 (Copenhagen, 2009)

The focus during this conference was crafting a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. While the summit fell short of a binding treaty, it established the Copenhagen Accord, which aimed to limit global heating to 2°C and mobilise $100 billion annually for climate action in developing countries.

However, by this time, CO₂ emissions had risen to around 390 parts ppm.

Cop21 (Paris, 2015)

Flash forward to The Paris Agreement, a major milestone, with nearly all countries committing to limit warming to “well below 2°C,” ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Countries submitted Nationally Determined Contributions outlining their emission reduction plans.

All the same CO₂ emissions had risen inexorably to around 400 ppm.

Cop24 (Katowice, 2018)

The “Katowice rulebook” provided guidelines for implementing the Paris Agreement, including transparency in emissions reporting. Nevertheless, CO₂ emissions rose to around 36.6 gigatons — one of the highest annual levels recorded — driven by sustained dependence on coal, oil, and gas.

Meanwhile, figures like Michael Gove and his proclamation that we have had enough of experts, helped promote a distrust of science and the ascendancy of cynical and obstructive delayers.

That year, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere reached an average of 407 ppm.

Cop26 (Glasgow, 2021)

The key focus of this convention was keeping the 1.5°C target achievable and establishing a framework for phasing down coal use and fossil fuel subsidies. It also committed to doubling climate finance for adaptation by 2025. However, the upward trend in CO₂ continued unabated.

In 2021, CO₂ concentrations rose to around 414 ppm.

Cop27 (Sharm El-Sheikh, 2022)

Although notable for creating the “loss and damage” fund, aimed at compensating vulnerable countries for climate-related impacts, this emphasis downplayed the importance of cutting emissions that caused the loss and damage in the first place.

In 2022, the global atmospheric concentration of CO₂ reached approximately 417 ppm.

Cop28 (Dubai, 2023)

Cop28 focused on energy transition, calling for tripling renewable provision and phasing out fossil fuels. However, that year, its president, Sultan al-Jaber, was also chair of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

Leaked documents revealed that the UAE aimed to use Cop28 to negotiate fossil fuel deals with 15 countries. We were being gaslit (literally) in plain sight. Doublethink became a feature of the propaganda war. The mask had truly slipped.

Last year, atmospheric CO₂ levels reached a new high at around 424 ppm. This increase brings CO₂ levels almost 50 per cent higher than pre-industrial levels.

Cop29 (Baku)

The rise in emissions has been inexorable and exponential.

While this year’s president, Mukhtar Babayev, claims that Cop29 will establish new climate finance goals, he too has been recorded actively lobbying for oil in the summit’s run-up.

He has ties to Socar, which supplies 30 per cent of oil to Israel to fuel its genocide. Moreover, BP has played a crucial role in supporting Azerbaijan’s ethnic cleansing of Armenian people within its borders.

It is clear that Cop conventions have become a futile smokescreen, allowing fossil fuel interests to obstruct mitigation measures and advance their own interests.

Since Cop1’s earnest beginnings, science has been sidelined, urgency has disappeared, and vested interests now drive backroom deals, making Cop’s failure to curb emissions inevitable.

Hope in Cop has died. We can do better than this.

In 2019, XR’s demand led to a government-sponsored citizens’ assembly on net-zero, free from fossil fuel influence, with government agencies integrating public input into policy.

Mike Thomson, then Committee on Climate Change exchange director of analysis, responded at the time: “We’ve taken their advice, and we’ve constructed our scenarios to align to it. [It] really matters for the way that we design policy.

“We need to talk to people about how they want us to go about policy development, policy implementation. [ … ] We need to build those recommendations into policy design in the same way that the Committee on Climate Change has built them into our scenarios.”

Research shows XR’s protests have shifted public opinion and policy on climate action, with politicians crediting our actions in 2018–19 for advancing climate discourse and policy.

It is beyond doubt that when we unite and harness the strength of grassroots movements, citizens’ assemblies, direct action, and non-violent civil disobedience, we can create the political space needed for meaningful change.

Tom Hardy writes for the Extinction Rebellion press team — follow him on Bluesky @tomxr.