THE outcome of the Caerphilly by-election was quite seismic, although there is a concerted effort by the leadership of the main political parties and most of the media to downplay its impact.

This is not surprising, as the result did not at all fit with their barrage of propaganda which suggests the rise of Reform UK is inexorable and sweeping all before it.

The bare facts alone of the result are dramatic and refute that propaganda. Plaid Cymru won the Senedd seat in a landslide — it took 47 per cent of the vote with a majority of 3,848.

Despite predictions to the contrary, Reform UK came a distant second with 36 per cent of the vote. Labour received an embarrassingly low vote, barely in double-digits (11 per cent) in an area it routinely wins.

The Tories were reduced to the status of a fringe party, a monster raving loony Tory vote of 2 per cent.

The two traditional parties, Labour and Conservative combined received barely more than one in eight of all votes cast.

A characterisation of the vote is reasonably clear. This was a “stop Farage” vote, a strong reminder that there is a large anti-Reform UK vote in this country. Reform generally polls 30 per cent or so, a clear indication that a clear majority of the population does not support its toxic politics, and a large portion of votes strongly oppose it.

But it was Plaid, which stands to the left of Labour on a host of issues, which was the sole beneficiary of the tactical voting to stop Reform. The most damning verdict on the current Labour leadership is that it is not at all trusted to represent, let alone lead, the anti-Farage forces.

This is hardly surprising. It is only recently that Cabinet members have been willing to describe Reform UK’s policies as racist. This only brings them into line with the view of the general public. But, while this criticism is both welcome and justified, it is purely rhetorical.

The Labour leadership continues to promote Reform-style asylum and immigration policies, which only have the effect of boosting Reform UK’s vote at the expense of Labour.

Just this week, the leadership was willing to hand Farage a badly needed win with his 10-minute rule Bill promoting withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights. It was only a revolt by Labour backbenchers that prevented it.

Ministers and others have attempted to justify mimicking Reform UK on the grounds that Labour is losing supporters because it is insufficiently aggressive on immigration.

Spokespeople for Labour even attempt to justify their woeful policies on the grounds that “private polling” suggests that this is a viable strategy.

Nonsense like this is properly described as policy-based evidence-making. In lay terms, this is making stuff up because it suits your political position.

There is ample public polling evidence which details a picture which is the mirror opposite of the one painted by Number 10 advisers.

The latest in a long line is a YouGov poll published by The Times on October 28. Devastatingly, it shows that Labour has lost one half of the support it gained in the July election last year and is now down to 17 per cent.

The breakdown of the polling is highly telling. Of the half of the voters Labour has lost since the general election just one-third have been lost to either Reform UK or the Tories. Two-thirds have been lost to either the Lib Dems or the Greens.

Yet this is all greeted with indifference or denial by the Labour leadership and its advisers. They continue to insist that Reform UK is the destination for all defecting Labour voters, against all the evidence.

At the same time, there is a pretence that voters are really quite happy with Labour’s direction, and all that is required is to accelerate along the same path.

Given that these delusions and wishful thinking are now so deeply ingrained, impervious to all objective analysis, the question arises whether the Number 10 operation does not understand or simply does not care about Labour’s fate.

Normally, this would seem an outlandish claim, but no other explanation seems credible. At the very least, the political outlook of the principals in Number 10 seems to align with Reform UK rather more closely than anything that could be described as traditional Labour values.

Yet the public is not being fooled by Labour’s spin. It is very clear that Reform and its policies are racist, and that a large proportion of voters rejects them. This too has been shown in YouGov polling.

Overwhelmingly they want effective solutions to the economic crisis, solutions which stop the decline in living standards. They do not hold migrants or asylum-seekers responsible for the crisis.

Unfortunately, the current Labour leadership is determined to disappoint them on all fronts. Instead, it pretends that current policies are not massively unpopular, as it has before.

Labour’s national vote in the May elections slumped to 20 per cent (BBC) or 19 per cent (Rallings and Thrasher). Starmer’s response was to pledge to go further and faster in the same direction. He has repeated this failed mantra in response to the Caerphilly by-election result.

If the public and the Labour leadership can be said to be heading in opposite directions, where does that leave Labour MPs, councillors and Labour members? The answer is in a very unhappy and uncomfortable place.

Councillors are defecting, or losing. The members are unhappy about all the key aspects of austerity. They reject Starmer’s pandering to racism on immigration and asylum. They are disgusted by the government’s support for Israel’s genocide and there is a growing grassroots opposition to the rise in military spending funded by cuts elsewhere, as the recent vote at the TUC confirms. Their vote for Lucy Powell as deputy leader was their only means of expressing that.

The MPs’ primary concern is retaining their own seats. In a parliamentary democracy, that is not entirely an unhealthy sentiment. But when a Labour government cannot retain Caerphilly, all bets are off.  

Grumbling, opposition and even outright rebellion are likely to be the order of the day.

I do not believe Starmer’s position is under immediate threat. But, judging by the manoeuvring of those much closer to the corridors of power, others have a different assessment.

The likely exactions of the Budget seem set to strengthen their view.

Yet much more important than the fate of one man is the question of the whole trajectory of the country. It remains in a crisis, and Farage subsists on that. The opposition to him is coalescing outside of and to some extent against Labour, leaving it nowhere. We must not let that happen without a fight.

Diane Abbott is Labour MP for for Hackney North and Stoke Newington.