FOOD prices ares set to rise soon, driven up by both the Iran war and El Nino weather phenomenon — and won’t come down again due to Britain’s reliance on oil and gas, a report warned yesterday.

Analysis of more than 30 years of British data showed the cost of household food staples such as bread and pasta does not fall back nearly as quickly as it rises in the wake of “major shocks.”

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank said the “rocket and feathers” effect explains why food prices remain far above pre-pandemic levels and are predicted to be 50 per cent higher in November than in mid-2021.

Experts expect El Nino to emerge this summer and last until next February.

ECIU food and farming analyst Chris Jaccarini said: “War and extreme weather are increasingly pushing up the cost of the weekly shop, with the latest conflict in the Middle East driving up the price of oil, gas and fertiliser used to grow, ship and process food.

“In England, we’ve had three of the worst harvests on record in the past five years and next year is shaping up to be the hottest globally.”

Mr Jaccarini said the “only way” to stop the growing risk of floods and droughts is to reach net zero carbon emissions and bring the climate back into balance, which “means cutting our reliance on oil and gas.”

Henry Dimbleby, former lead of the government’s National Food Strategy, said: “Food inflation has been brutal — and it will keep biting unless we tackle the underlying causes.”

Food Foundation executive director Anna Taylor said: “If we are serious about making food more affordable, we have to focus on reducing the impact of the next shock, not just responding after the damage is done.”

Right to Food UK Commission co-chairman Ian Byrne told the Morning Star: “We need a legal right to food enshrined in law to help the millions struggling to put a meal on the table.

“Our Right to Food Commission, which has travelled the UK listening to communities, will produce its report in September with a roadmap showing how we create a right to food.

“I hope the government listen to us and act with the seriousness and urgency this issue deserves,” added Mr Byrne, who is the Labour MP for Liverpool West Derby.