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‘The Labour Party will get a trouncing at the next election’

Starmer struggles to save leadership amid polling calamity

Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivers a speech during a reception for public sector workers, at 10 Downing Street, London, July 1, 2025

PRIME Minister Sir Keir Starmer is fighting to save his political future as polls and parliamentarians alike give his precarious premiership the thumbs down on the anniversary of Labour’s general election win tomorrow.

Reeling from a week of political setbacks, with his welfare Bill gutted and his Chancellor Rachel Reeves sending markets in turmoil by weeping on the government front bench, the Prime Minister suffered a fresh blow from opinion polls today.

They confirmed that Labour has lost almost a third of the thin plurality it won in last year’s general election, now averaging 24 per cent, or a 10 per cent drop on last July.

This is the worst fall for a government in its first year since John Major’s Tories in 1992, who were starting from a much higher base. Sir Keir can only dream of the 31 per cent Major was then polling.

The findings have been compiled by the PA news agency, using its own archive of national poll data combined with figures published in academic studies.

Left Labour MPs now believe that they may have the government on the run and are planning further rebellions next week over universal credit payments.

They believe that Sir Keir’s authority is evaporating and point to the fact that 49 Labour MPs voted against the welfare Bill this week even after concessions had removed its most objectionable elements.

The scale of the rebellion meant that removing the parliamentary whip — Sir Keir’s sanction of choice throughout his leadership — was simply not an available option.

One MP told the Star that “he won’t last past next May,” referring to 2026 local elections which are expected to be disastrous for Labour and Tories alike.

And Durham Miners’ Association (DMA) general secretary Alan Mardghum told the Star that Sir Keir must be ditched.  

“Labour, unless they get rid of Starmer, and all the rest, the hangers on, unelected people like Morgan McSweeney, the Labour Party will get a trouncing at the next election,” he said.

Looking ahead to the miners’ gala next weekend, he added that “if people at the gala have the same view as I do the attitude to this Labour government will be one of disgust” because of its repeated attacks on the most vulnerable.

“Good things they’ve done are overshadowed by the absolute insanity of attacking the most vulnerable in society,” he said.

“Stopping the winter fuel payments, or the way not one person on that front bench missed an opportunity to stand with the Waspi women and say ‘we’ll put this right’ when in opposition, but then they renege on it in power.”

Deputy premier Angela Rayner is seen as the winner from the week’s chaos, securing the welfare U-turn that averted a still-worse debacle for the government.

Ms Reeves, the main architect of the planned cuts aimed at disabled people, has seen her political standing fall as fast as her tears.

Sir Keir, labouring under a personal approval rating of minus 54 per cent which is another record for one year in office, attempted to right the ship today by pledging his support for Reeves.

He denied the pressure was getting too much for the Chancellor, saying “she’s very resilient and strong is Rachel. She’s driven through lots of change in the Labour Party.

“We’ve had to change the Labour Party, fought an election together. I’ve seen her resilience first hand,” he said before embarking on an awkward attempt to hug Ms Reeves.

The Prime Minister acknowledged that “we did not get the process right” on welfare, the latest in a series of mea culpas he has made in recent weeks as his government ran into the sand.

He has cited being over-focused on international affairs and regretted making remarks reminiscent of Enoch Powell on migration.

Reeves herself insisted her lachrymose performance at Prime Minister’s Questions in Wednesday had been about a purely personal issue which she would not elaborate on.

She claimed that she was “just cracking on with the job.”

Sir Keir’s main consolation is that polls show support for the Tories also sliding, which is unprecedented for an official opposition one year in. It has gone from 25 per cent a year ago to 18 per cent today.

The main beneficiary is the hard right Reform, in the polling lead on 29 per cent, with Liberal Democrats and Greens also gaining.

A government spokesperson said: “We were elected with a commitment to deliver change and security for working people — and we are getting on with the job.

“We are delivering our Plan for Change — wages are rising faster than prices, interest rates have been cut four times, immigration has come down with 30,000 people with no right to be here removed and over four million NHS appointments have been delivered.

“Progress has been made, but we know people are impatient for change — and we are too — so we will continue to govern in the national interest for British people and deliver a decade of national renewal.”

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer during his speech and press conf
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