IT IS Qipco Champions Day at Ascot this afternoon and it is always a shame that this big racing day nearly always takes place on soft or heavy ground, I would much prefer that the meeting stayed at Newmarket where the ground dries out much quicker. However, the powers that be that also disqualified the Cesarewitch winner four days after the race, obviously have their reasoning. Say no More!
The highlight of the afternoon at the Berkshire track is the Champion Stakes (3.55) and this race centres around whether Economics handles this softer ground after his battling victory in the Irish version on good ground. This will be the deepest ground he has run on since his career debut at Newmarket last November when he stayed on nicely that day to finish a closing fourth. Unbeaten in four outings since, purely on both my ratings and those of the official handicapper he has 2lbs to find with the French raider Calandagan.
In contrast the raider from across the Channel has already won on very soft and heavy ground in France and has the best piece of form in this field with his length second to City of Troy in the Juddmonte International at York when he looked the likely winner a furlong-and-a-half out.
Third favourite, Los Angeles was only a length-and-a-half off the Irish Champion Stakes hero at Leopardstown and has since gone on to run a very fine third in the Arc at Longchamp. His lack of tactical speed will be somewhat offset by this deeper ground and as long as he has come out of those exertions well it is hard to see him finishing out of the first three. But if there is some each-way value out there it has to be in the form of the huge outsider SEE THE FIRE. This three-year-old filly has run consistently well all season, culminating in a running on third in the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket following a similar run style to finish second in the Nassau at Goodwood and in between a smooth win in the Group Three Strensall Stakes at York.
Those last three runs heralded the best ratings of her career and she could provide an almighty shock in this feature event, but even a placed effort would yield a huge profit for us.
The Balmoral Handicap is the only non-group race on the card at 4.35 and a big field will go to post here. It is a race that has given up its fair share of big-priced winners none more so than two years ago when Shelir won at 80/1 and last year The Gatekeeper made most of the running to win at 25/1.
The progressive three-year-old Thunder Run is most likely to go off favourite here, but in light of the poor run of market leaders in this race I am once again going to go out on a limb and play with the 50/1 shot MISKY.
I thought that David O’Meara’s charge was a huge eyecatcher last time out at the track in the BetMGM Challenge Cup when finishing fifth, beaten five lengths by Volterra. Despite his rather awkward head carriage, the five-year-old travelled strongly through the race with the first time hood and ran on well enough. The use of the hood (retained here) suggests that this French import is possibly saving a bit for himself and a 1lb drop in the ratings to 95 makes him a viable each-way play with most of the bookmakers set to offer extended place terms. Of his rivals, I have the most regard for Lincoln winner Mr Professor and Godwinson. The last named was poorly drawn in the Cambridgeshire, racing down the centre of the track and finishing third of the 12 in that group, having no chance with Liberty Lane and company on the far side of the track.
The opening Long Distance Cup (1.20) looks to be in the hands, or hoofs, of KYPRIOS and it will take an almighty performance to bring him down. If he does have an off day then last year’s winner Trawlerman may take him down as he did last year.
The other races though are much more open and that means that there is plenty of value to be had, not least with Irish raider BUCANERO FUERTE (1.55) in the Sprint. The son of Wootton Bassett has not raced on a testing surface since winning on his carer debut in a Curragh maiden. He shaped like he needs a return to a sixth furlong when a running on four-length seventh of 18 behind Bradsell in the Group One Flying Five Stakes. The other plus is that he comes here a very fresh horse, having run just the three times and gets the vote over Elite Status and former winner Art Power.
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes should see the consistent and smart Charyn go off a pretty tight market leader, but I am quite happy to let him go and win at odds of around 6/4. The pick could well be the French raider FACTEUR CHEVAL who was second in this event to Big Rock a couple of years ago and has run just twice since the middle of June both on fast ground which is certainly not his domain. Back on deep ground and with an end to end gallop to run at, I am hoping he is close enough at halfway to outstay his rivals up the final climb here. Fellow raider and French 2,000 Guineas winner, Metropolitan is also a massive player here.
The Fillies and Mares at 2.25 looks just about the most difficult race on the entire card with 14 set to go to post. On her Pretty Polly form Content should run well, but she has since finished a hugely disappointing 10th of 11 in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp and VILLAGE VOICE is preferred. Jessie Harrington’s charge has plenty to find on the official figures, but has been campaigned with this race in mind. Off a 115-day break, the daughter of Zarak eased to victory in a Group Three at Saint-Cloud. That was only her second run over 12 furlongs and it came on testing ground so a double-figure price looks pretty tempting.
