SNP is on course to retain power in Holyrood as support for independence hit a four-year high of 54 per cent, according to a new poll.

Despite a year which has seen their former chief executive facing charges related to embezzlement, the loss of a leader, a coalition with the Greens and 38 seats at the general election, research since Wednesday’s draft budget suggests the SNP are on course to win 37 per cent of constituency votes and 32 per cent on the regional lists at the next Holyrood elections in 2026.

Writing in the Sunday Times — which commissioned the Norstat poll — expert Sir John Curtice suggests this would give SNP 59 seats in Holyrood, as Labour plunge to a new low of 20, and Reform win 13.

Suggesting Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s minus 32 per cent approval rating may be the root of Labour’s woes, Sir John wrote: “Just 21 per cent of Scots now say they would vote Labour on the constituency ballot for a Scottish parliament election, down nine points on Norstat’s poll in August and as much as 14 points below the party’s tally in July’s general election.”

Citing data that suggests 12 per cent of Labour voters in July would now support the SNP and 13 per cent now back Reform, he added: “The party’s support is down among both supporters and opponents of independence.”

SNP MSP Emma Harper commented: “Increasing support for independence is a sign that the people of Scotland know that Westminster, no matter who is in government, is failing them.”

Pointing to a string of council by-election victories to dismiss the poll on the BBC’s Sunday Show, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said: “I do actually think Keir Starmer is doing a good job.”