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WITH rain all around the country for the first time in weeks we will see the word “soft” somewhere in the going description at several racecourse venues, and that is a reason for us punters to be even more cautious than normal.
Bookmakers love to shorten a horse under such circumstances when the going changes dramatically and along with most of them as nervous as a deer in a field of lions, any run on such a horse will see the odds plummet so much so that the “soft” ground animal becomes overbet and their odds no longer reflect their real chance in the race.
Windsor, Goodwood, Newmarket and to a lesser extent, Beverley, are all set to be affected by these betting patterns, so buyer beware!
So on to the real business of tipping. One charge that has been waiting for the heavens to open has been AINSDALE, and in my eyes the five-year-old has a mighty chance in the feature Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes due off at 2.40.
Highly tried last year having run some fair runs in the Champions Day Sprint Stakes (10th of 20) and when a close-up fourth in the Group Three Bengough Stakes at Ascot, the selection has since moved from Karl Burke to the in-form Julie Camacho.
Given a 231-day break, the 16/1 shot only returned to the track at the back end of June, when he ran a solid fourth of 11 behind the impressive Sense of Duty in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle.
That run seemed to confirm that he retains most of his ability, and the drop back to a stiff five furlongs with a bit of dig looks absolutely made to measure. The selection gets the nod over the likely favourite Tis Marvellous and the three-year-old Alia Choice.
Also at the pear-shaped track, have a second look at the Conduit gelding, MAJESTIC, off top weight in the opener at 1.30.
He was a decisive winner, albeit of a moderate Pontefract novice last time out, but a handicap mark of 82 affords him a chance to double up under Ben Curtis.
Later on, PROSPECT is back down to a rating only a pound above his last mark in the 3.10 and with the change in the weather and ground, the four-year-old looks ready to strike again and can reverse recent form with Soul Seeker on 6lbs better terms for a four-and-a-half length beating.
The feature, Group Two, Celebration Mile (3.35) has attracted a hugely disappointing field of just five for a £125,000 contest.
Mutasaabeq is top rated off 112, but does he really stay a mile?
A slowly run race would obviously suit him, but with just 6lbs separating all the runners, this could be decided by jockey error or good judgement, and of course the better ground at the downland track.
Finest Sound ran a cracker at York last week, while Jadoomi could still be way better than his current official rating of 107, and hails from a massively in-form stable.
But I have a feeling that the old boy, STORMY ANTARCTIC, may prove too good for them all.
Now a nine-year-old, Ed Walker has to pick and choose his races for the old boy, but this has obviously been his aim since finishing last of nine in this race last year on unsuitably fast ground.
I was actually surprised that Ed let him run on that surface.
Since then, the selection has run just the three times with his last outing over a mile-and-a-quarter here in the Listed Festival Stakes being just a shade too far for him.
That was his first run in six months and should have set himself up nicely for this main event.
Of the other races on the card, I suspect we will get a really good run out of DANVILLE off top weight in the mile and a quarter handicap at 4.45, while the step back up to two miles should prove perfect for RAVENS ARK in the finale at 5.20.
Over at Newmarket, the Tattersalls Stakes at 2.45 has seen some big-priced winners and placed horses in the past and although Eddie’s Boy and Woolhampton have every chance of being involved at the business end on the best of their form this year, I am going to take a chance with STRAWBERRY BELLE making her mark here.
She has only run three times, but her best run was with some juice in the ground at Newbury, but fast ground over the course and distance last time out was simply too quick for the filly.
A bigger field, with a faster pace and slower ground look sure to see her improve and she is worth backing at a double figure price.
The big handicap on the card is the mile and three quarters event at 3.50 and GOLD MAZE looks ready to strike for the Osborne clan.
This son of Golden Horn ran an absolute cracker of a race behind subsequent Ebor hero Trawlerman when two-and-a-quarter lengths off the charge in the Summer Cup at Goodwood.
This will be only his seventh start on turf and his first with some real give in the ground and although it is an educated guess, his breeding suggests he has every chance of acting on such a surface, and therefore improve enough to play a leading role.
My final bet of the day comes at the evening meeting at Redcar where WILLARD CREEK can follow up his success in Nottingham in July.
Handed an opening handicap rating of just 72, this lightly raced four-year-old should prove too good at the weights for the likes of the ultra-consistent Star Shield and top weight Pisanello.

Weekend’s racing round-up with Farringdon

Including races at York, Haydock, Chester and Lingfield

Including races at Curragh, Haydock and Goodwood

Including races at Newbury, Newmarket, Thirsk and Doncaster