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ARGUABLY the most difficult handicap of the entire flat season, the 35-runner Cambridgeshire handicap (Newmarket, 3.40), is a huge conundrum and the key for me is either finding an unexposed three-year-old or a late maturing older horse.
However, that is far from the end of solving this cavalry charge as the draw is always important, as will this year be the state of the ground with the area around the Suffolk track set to be hit by plenty of rain at the back end of the week.
Luckily the forecast suggests we will be in for a dry Saturday and we know how quickly the course dries out, being exposed and on a sand surface. I expect that there will be at least some give in the ground so hopefully not too many of the final entries will be inconvenienced by radical ground conditions.
Likely favourite is probably the John and Thady Gosden trained Roi De France, set to have just his fifth career start on the back of a novice win on fast ground at Windsor followed by a running on second of nine over this trip at Yarmouth when Ryan Moore and James Webb bossed the race from the start.
It is hard to know how good he could possibly be and how much his next step forward will take him, but I reckon he will need to improve at least 7lbs to be involved here and that doesn’t include the unknown factor of luck in the run.
The other three-year-old that hugely interests me is PONIROS (currently a reserve). He has twice weakened inside the final furlong when racing over a mile and a half this season, his start in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot is easily brushed aside as he pulled very hard and had to race wide on the track. Any significant rain won’t be a problem, he won his maiden on heavy ground at Nottingham, and I think a fast run nine furlongs will be perfect for him as long as he is drawn on the right side of the track with the most significant pace.
With the Ralph Beckett-trained charge freely available at 25/1 and still not guaranteed a run, we can afford to have a second selection such is the size of the field and I have fallen down on the side of big outsider SILENT FILM. The six-year-old ran well in two valuable handicaps at Meydan in spring and has since followed up with three cracking runs on class-two handicaps at Sandown, Goodwood and Ascot. Down to a mark only 1lb higher than his last handicap win I am hoping he can outrun his current odds in the vicinity of 50/1.
The likes of another outsider, Teumessias Fox (Andrew Balding claims a useful 3lbs off with William Carver), last year’s third Bopedro (9lbs lower here) and Goodwood winner Godwinson are all respected.
The Group One Middle Park Stakes (3.00) has been won by some seriously fast two-year-olds in the past and following his third career win from six outings in the Prix Morny at Deauville, Whistlejacket deserves his place at the head of the market.
However, he remains vulnerable to the improvers in the eight horse line-up. Defence Minister was very impressive when making it two from two, albeit only in a Haydock Park novice. This is a big step up in grade, but he won with any amount in hand there. SHADOW OF LIGHT is two from three, but his defeat in the Gimcrack Stakes at York by Cool Hoof Luke was his best yet, and that sharp five furlongs was always going to prove a tad too sharp for him. Back up to six here on a stiffer track I think he will be involved at the sharp end granted a good gallop.
The Cheveley Park Stakes (2.25) could go to the unbeaten BABOUCHE (nap) who beat the aforementioned Whistlejacket fair and square in the Phoenix Stakes. Back against her own sex she can make it four from four at the main expense of the French raider Rayevka, the last named guaranteed to act on the ground if it turns soft.
The one mile Royal Lodge Stakes (1.50) looks the most wide open of the three Group One juvenile events and I will probably take a chance on ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT who found the seven furlongs of the Solario Stakes at Sandown Park a bit sharp, this stiffer test of stamina should be perfect for him.
At the back end of the card, the seven furlong Stradivarius First Foals 2024 Handicap may go to MISSION TO MOON. He lost a shoe when a fair fourth behind Grey’s Monument at Ascot last time out, and off a 1lb lower mark and with ground conditions no problem he looks like a very solid each-way play.
Fully 8lbs below his last winning mark over this course and distance, MATTICE looks the call in the five furlong sprint handicap at Ripon (2.45). He may be able to see off another mudlark in the form of last week’s Chester winner Count d’Orsay.
The feature Ripon Cathedral City of the Dales Handicap (3.20) looks wide open with 12 set to go to post, but I fancy an each-way play in the form of old boy FORTAMOUR. He has a splendid record over the course and distance and although you couldn’t say he was exactly thrown in at the weights, it could be a case of the more rain the brighter his chance would become.
Over at Haydock Park, recent Goodwood winner Rhoscolyn bids to defy a 5lbs penalty, but I think it may prove too much to see him give up that weight allowance to RAADOBARG. The selection hasn’t won for 22 runs, but has finally been given some slack by the handicapper and although seven furlongs would be preferable for him, the six-year-old has won over this course and distance.
