Disclaimer: Compulsive gambling can harm your health and relationships, and leave you in serious debt. If you have a problem with gambling and you’d like to stop, support and treatment is available. To find information, support and counselling on gambling addiction, please visit the NHS website: www.bit.ly/NHSGambling

IT IS the changing of the guard in the two-mile chase division this season and that will be confirmed when Jonbon tries to land a hat-trick of Tingle Creek Chases at Sandown Park this afternoon.

Winner of 13 of his 18 starts and remarkably placed on his other five, the Esher track has always been a fruitful course for him, but it is hard not to conclude that his is firmly on the downgrade having been brushed aside to the tune of a very easy 15 lengths by L’Eau Du Sud in the Cheltenham Chase and then previously here in the Celebration Stakes by IL ETAIT TEMPS (3.00).

The Willie Mullins trained runner is six wins from eight over fences and did exactly what a 2/9 favourite should on his comeback, cruising to a facile victory in the Grade Two Chase at Clonmel last month.

The young pretenders in the chasing world take part in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase. As a juvenile hurdler, Lulamba always looked as though he would make a better chaser courtesy of the way he jumped hurdles. However, I think we have gone too overboard about his win at Exeter, a success he was entitled to win in that style against moderate rivals.

I fancy that the value could well lie with ALNILAM (1.50), winner of both of his starts over fences and jumping very efficiently in the process. He has an uncomplicated way of running, from off the top and getting into a rhythm he is a fabulous sight to see. He could well get the favourite and the two other players at it over the Railway Fences and may well be over priced at around the 7/1 mark to make all the running.

LAVENDER HILL MOB (1.20) was a huge disappointment as a juvenile hurdler, was Triumph Hurdle second favourite at one stage, seemingly outpaced and jumping erratically in the process. Rated as high as 96 on the flat, he always struck me as a stayer in that discipline, and that theory was finally applied over sticks when he was stepped up to 2m5f at Cheltenham. He not only hurdled a whole lot better than over the minimum trip, but the further he went the better he looked and he eased home by four and three quarter lengths, looking very strong at the finish.

This extra distance should play further to his strengths off a rating of 127, less Alex Chadwick’s 3lbs claim, and the James Owen charge is taken to see off the likes of Kikijo and Supremely West and the four timer seeking Absolutely Doyen. If the ground doesn’t get too testing I can see AFADIL (2.25) running well off what looks a dangerous handicap mark of 120 with Harry Cobden on board with a recent race under his belt. Glynn Brae was a good winner over two and a half miles here last month and looks sure to make this a relative test of stamina.

Over at Aintree, the Grand National fences once again come into play in the Becher Handicap Chase with 13 set to go to post headed by the admirable Mr Vango set to race off a career high mark of 152. I think that the ground won’t be soft enough for the nine-year-old and it may pay to look further down the handicap for the winner.

Bottom weight Gaboriot ran another superb race over these fences when staying on second in the Grand Sefton Chase, but I suspect that the intermediate trip is his best distance. Galia Des Liteaux should be all the better for her seasonal debut at Carlisle and with more rain forecast and Tristan Durrell taking 3lbs off, I find it hard to see the mare being out of the first three here and I make her the biggest danger to TWIG (2.40).

The 10-year-old seems to retain most of his ability judged on a game success in a three-mile handicap chase at Sandown Park last month and he handled the fences really well in the Grand National when a very satisfactory 10th home behind Nick Rockett.

Also at the Liverpool track have a second look at DIXIE MAFIA (12.24) who has been absolutely crying out for a step up in trip and showed in the point to point field that stamina is very much his main asset.

BIBE MUS (2.05) and ACT OF AUTHORITY (3.15) should both run well in their respective events. The last named is finally being shown some mercy by the handicapper and with the 5lbs claim of Lewis Saunders, he is set to race off a mark of 133. That is just a pound higher than when running a mighty race in the big three-mile handicap hurdle at the Grand National meeting when he arguably didn’t get home.

The Welsh National is just over the horizon later this month and the big trial at 1.36 at Chepstow has some very interesting runners needing to win to get a penalty to guarantee a place in the field. Trainer Nick Gifford will be hoping that the steady rain forecast comes to fruition for his strong staying Aworkinprogress, who has gone from strength to strength and now faces the relative acid test off his highest mark of 125, with the main aim to get the extra poundage on his rating to run in the big race at the end of the month. 

However, I reckon he could start way too short in the market place and the each-way value against him could be with PATS FANCY. The Rebecca Curtis-trained charge has obviously endured some training problems since finishing three and a half lengths off Bravemansgame in his novice chase days in February ‘22 and only visited the race course on seven occasions. That has seen his handicap mark plummet from 143 to his current rating of 115 and he showed enough with his fourth at Ffos Las recently to suggest he could be thrown in here.