THERE are two big betting mediums this weekend, at Newcastle and Kempton Park respectively, namely the Betting.bet Eider Chase (2.08) at the Gosforth Park track and the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (3.37) formerly the Racing Post Chase at the Sunbury-On-Thames course.
However, the latter, although offering a valuable top prize and through the placings as well, has only attracted a very disappointing 12 runners of which about half would not have wanted to see the very wet weather around the region in the past week.
That means despite the free draining nature of the track that we are likely to experience pretty testing going this afternoon at Kempton Park.
That automatically draws me to the chance of LORD BADDESLEY who I think has been crying out for this first run over three miles.
Rated as high as 133 over hurdles, (3 from 13) he has reached a mark of 132 over fences, but I think this distance could draw him much closer to 140.
I was at Newbury when he last ran in December in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Handicap Chase over the intermediate trip of an extended two-and-three-quarter-miles. It was striking how he was beautifully nursed into the race by Rex Dingle and was at least running on as strongly as the winner, Inch House, on the final run to the line after the last obstacle.
You could also argue that Rex could have brought him into contention earlier, but there were probably doubts about him seeing out that trip, which he did comprehensively.
I suspect this further step up to three miles could bring about more improvement and although his handicap mark may not be the stand-out here, if we get a true run race, I expect Rex to once again smuggle him into the contest late and hopefully drive him to victory down the lane.
Of his rivals, he has nothing to fear from Killer Kane on that Berkshire run, so Great Yorkshire Chase runner-up Forward Plan could well be his biggest rival here.
The supporting races have sadly attracted fairly small fields for the prize money on offer, apart from the opening 2 mile 5 furlong handicap hurdle at 1.15 over the Lanzarote course and distance.
Mark of Gold (fell four out), Samuel Spade (well beaten in 10th) and Up For Parol (faded badly late on to finish 13th) all ran in that famous race and this does look a tad easier.
Preference is for the last named who did way too much too early and if Gavin Sheehan can give him a better chance to get home, the partnership lacks big players off a 2lbs higher mark.
However, I also like the bottom weight SEA INVASION, set to carry the same colours of the Cheshires as Lord Baddesley in the big race.
If you go back far enough in his career, you will see that he finished a close up second on his only point-to-point start to the now Grade One regarded hurdler Sea Slade.
On his second start over hurdles he was only five-and-a-quarter lengths off Jeriko Du Reponet and then ran well when fourth of 10 behind Court In The Act in a maiden hurdle over two miles here.
The son of Sea Moon kicks off life in handicaps off a mark of 114 (a mere pound out of the weights) and if he makes the anticipated improvement, which he obviously must do, for the step-up in trip, then he could be a big player at a huge price for a yard in a nice streak of form at the moment.
Of the other races on the card, KALIF DU BERLAIS, who created such a big impression here at the last meeting, may be able to successfully give 5lbs away to Peking Opera in the Grade Two Coral Adonis Hurdle at 1.50, while the Grade Two Coral Pendil Novices Chase may go to the only mare in the contest, ARCLIGHT, who will relish the testing conditions and can make the most of the 6lbs she is set to receive from Tahmuras.
At Newcastle, the Eider Chase looks like being a right old-fashioned deep stamina test over the very tough extended four-miles-and-a-furlong trip at the Tyneside track. And several of these are sure to be floundering well before they exit the back straight for the final time and examine the final run of fences before the stiff uphill finish.
Top weight, The Galloping Bear, runs from his lowest handicap chase mark in his career with the talented Joe Anderson taking 5lbs off his back, but he needs a big improvement in form to play a part here even off his reduced mark.
Midlands’ National hero Major Dundee will clearly relish this trip, but a rating of 132 still looks tough, he won the Uttoxeter feature off 129 and was pulled up recently in the Warwick Classic when he was never going a yard.
Tommie Beau will undoubtedly see out the trip, but the one I like best going up in distance is the Venetia Williams-trained CHRISTOPHER WOOD.
Rated as high as 85 on the flat, when he seemed to adore plenty of give in the ground, his esteemed handler ran him in some nice races as a hurdler, sixth of 23 behind Commander of the Fleet in the Coral Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in very testing conditions before running him over fences.
Beaten a mere length by Quel Destin on his second start over the larger obstacles over two miles, in all four contests since, the son of Fast Company has always intimated that a deeper test of stamina would suit him concluding in a staying on third of 12 behind Inis Oirr in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh.
Of course there is no guarantee that he will see out this extra distance in deeper ground, but he was tapped for toe at a crucial stage of that marathon contest on a sharp track, and I am convinced this more galloping course will play to his strengths.
Elsewhere, GOOD FRIDAY FAIRY (Chepstow, 2.33) can continue a good run of form this season, while the best bet on the all-weather flat could come in the form of MILITARY ORDER in the BetUK Derby Stakes at Southwell at 3.20 and later on course-and-distance winner VALSAD in a mile-and-a-half handicap due off at 4.30.
