SATURDAY’S racing is not a bad set-up when you consider the Boxing Day action to come on Tuesday.
I shall cover the latter at the end of this piece, but for this afternoon the main action takes places at Ascot, with the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle (2.25) the feature event.
The Stayers Hurdle category has a mixed bag look to it at the moment, with only Teahupoo having made his mark on the event at Cheltenham in March — having won the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle for a second year running.
However, the British challenge looks a shade confused, and this renewal will hopefully clarify the picture a bit more.
The likely market leader will be West Balboa, but her sole win this season was in a three-runner affair at Aintree over Brewin’upastorm, which told us nothing as the latter is on the downgrade and nowhere near this level.
She looks a false market leader to me and the well-backed second favourite, Crambo, also has a bundle to find on form.
With the thoroughly exposed pair, Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher next in line, this looks a race ripe for a surprise from a less exposed sort and BLUEKING D’OROUX fits the bill.
The Paul Nicholls-trained runner is two from two this season, culminating in a smooth win over Strong Leader in the Grade Two, two-and-a-half mile Coral Hurdle here last month.
I don’t think there will a problem for him stepping up to three miles here, and he is ready to take another step forward and see off the Skelton trained favourite — and the aforementioned Crambo.
The big betting handicap at the Berkshire track is the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase over three miles at 3.00, and if the ground continues to dry out, then FLASH COLLONGES could be conceivably well weighted off a mark of 134.
Progressive last season, this lightly raced, eight-year-old finished off his season when falling at the 19th when still going nicely in the Scottish National at Ayr.
The assessor has kept him on the same mark here, but the key to him is the ground, and as long as the course receives no more rain, and he is ready to roll following a 245-day break, he could be a blot on the handicap.
Of the remainder in the 11-runner field, I have most regard for course and distance winner Larry, who fairly weighted on his good form at the track.
TRANSMISSION should run well in the opening novices handicap hurdle at 12.40, and I have a strong fancy for Greatwood Hurdle winner IBERICO LORD to follow up in the valuable Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at 3.35 before he possibly takes on graded company.
Over at Haydock Park, only nine will go to post for the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (1.30), a race diluted by the Ascot staying event.
Famous Bridge is the obvious one here, having relished the step up to three miles at the Merseyside track last time out.
A 6lbs penalty is probably fair but he will have to take a significant step forward here to see off ENQARDE.
A wind operation in August seemed to have sorted this former French chaser out and despite being less than fluent at his obstacles, the nine-year-old was too good for the progressive Docpickedme. He looks the value each-way call here at around the 8/1 mark.
JAGWAR is an interesting handicap debutant in the 2.05 with any amount of improvement to come, while later on, have a second look at STORM NELSON in the staying handicap hurdle at 3.15.
Despite top weight, the handicapper has given him a real chance here and Charlie Maggs takes a further 7lbs off his back — which leaves him 4lbs below his last winning rating.
Elsewhere, I shall also be having an interest on GLORY BRIDGE (12.30) at an each-way price in the Newcastle 12.30 and then on the all-weather at Lingfield on MEASURED MOMENTS (1.25) and the well handicapped PERFECT FOCUS at 2.00.
And so onto the highlights through Christmas and the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day.
Allaho has been the mover for the big race at Kempton Park (2.30), but his price has come and gone, and I am happy to let him win at 7/4 with a slight doubt about him seeing out the three miles here. The ground is slowly coming right for last year’s runaway winner, Bravemansgame.
This though is a much better contest and I can’t help but think that he had a harder race than was expected in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. So the bet for me has to be SHISHKIN.
I know he failed to race at Ascot, but I am hoping that was a one-off. He is the unexposed one in the field over three miles and with a bundle of pace on here, courtesy of The Real Whacker and Frodon, he should be able to get into a nice rhythm before firing down the home stretch.
The French raider IL EST FRANCAIS is a fascinating runner in the Kauto Star Novices Chase at 1.20, and he is taken to beat the home team in the three miler, the best of which could be Northern raider Giovinco.
The last named was particularly impressive when dotting up at Aintree over the Mildmay Fences, and then was outstayed by Stay Away Fay at Sandown. This flatter track should suit him so much better.
Finally, at Kempton don’t miss out on RUSSIAN RULER in the opening handicap hurdle at 12.45. The way he shaped at Newbury on his seasonal debut suggests that this step back up to two-and-a-half miles will suit him down to the ground.
On Wednesday, the Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Chepstow, 2.50) may well go to SUPER SURVIVOR.
I have long thought of Jamie Snowden’s youngster as the perfect type for this Christmas slog.
He jumps well, stays and has significant improvement in him, and the cream on the cake is that he has won at this track before during the novices’ event 12 months ago — a venue that doesn’t suit every horse.
Anything around the 8/1 shot should be snatched up in order to see off the likely market leader Monbeg Genius who, in my book, is not certain to see out the extra yardage here. In fact, a bigger danger to the selection could well come from last year’s runner-up Highland Hunter.
Fergal O’Brien’s charge made a cracking seasonal debut at Kelso when second to Elvis Mail and then unseated Paddy Brennan early on in the Becher Chase at Aintree at The Chair.
I suspect this has been the aim all along and if he lines up anything in the region of 20/1 would be too big, especially as he is set to run off a 2lbs lower mark here.