THE new Premier League season has already seen a flurry of wonder goals scored from outside the box. 

From Jhon Duran to Eberechi Eze, Liam Delap to Marcus Rashford, players have seemed more inclined to take a chance from a distance. 

Even penalty-box-dweller Erling Haaland has scored from outside the box.

So far this season, the percentage of goals scored from outside the box is at its highest level since the 2013/14 season.

Does this mean they are back in fashion, and we are in for a season of screamers? Maybe, though it’s a long shot.

A lot of the discussion around the value of long shots, and the reason for their decline in recent years, focuses on expected goals (or xG).

The basic idea is that the higher the xG of the shot, the more chance it will result in a goal. Generally, the closer to goal, the higher the xG.

Sometimes a shot from distance will have a higher xG — if it is in a one-on-one situation on the break, for example — but usually, they are considered low-quality shooting chances.

This introduction of xG across the game has led to the idea that it is responsible for the decline in shooting from distance, but this would likely have happened anyway.

It didn’t take such data for coaches, or anyone else for that matter, to realise that, in general, their team has more chance of scoring if the shots are taken closer to goal.

Much of the tactical evolution in football in recent years has focused on the best way to find these advantageous shooting opportunities nearer to goal.

One way is through prolonged possession to pull a defence apart and eventually create spaces close to the opposition's goal.

Another is through pressing or counter-pressing, where teams position themselves high up the pitch and try to win the ball from the opposition in their own half, almost creating a shortcut to goal.

“I think a decrease in shooting distance is a consequence in a change in playing style,” former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham recently told the BBC for their in-depth piece on the subject titled The Slow Death of the Screamer.

“Compared to 10 years ago when there was a lot of long-ball football and attempts from outside the area, teams are playing in a much more similar style to that brought in by Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp.

“I think it is just a happy accident that it looks analytics-related.”

The Oxford Languages definition of “expected” is: regarded as likely; anticipated.

Players will have their own different interpretations of the definition based more on the anticipation aspect of it. They will also have their own interpretations of expected goals, generated from playing thousands of hours of football.

For players, not all long shots are created equally. There is the long shot where the ball sits up nicely, ready to be struck just as it leaves the ground on the bounce, or the dead ball you know is in the perfect position. When those are hit, the hope is high.

Then there are those dug out in slight desperation. There is some hope, as one of these might have gone in in the past, but the sliding scale of hope to expectation tips very much towards the former.

There is the attempt at an objective, data-driven definition of expected goals, xG; but there is also the subjective idea of an expected goal from the players themselves and their own instincts.

There were good examples of this last weekend in the game of glorious aggro between two of the best teams in the Premier League, Manchester City and Arsenal.

When Riccardo Calafiori took a shot from what looked like an impossible position from which to score, he was already wheeling away, preparing his celebration before the ball found the net.

The xG for this shot was, according to the scores and statistics app FotMob, 0.02, but still, Calafiori knew that there was more than a 2 out of 100 chance of it going in, and once he hit it, he was almost certain it would find the net.

Contrast this with Man City’s long shots in the second half as they pushed to win the game against a 10-man Arsenal. They were digging them out against a low block, hitting and hoping out of frustration and desperation rather than expectation.

Over a longer period, having known threats from long shots can open up the game elsewhere. Defenders’ inclination to close down a genuine long shot threat can open up space closer to the goal.

It is similar to how an American football team with an effective passing game can make a defence wary and as a result, open up space for the running backs, or in rugby union where ceaseless work down the middle from the forwards eventually creates space for the backs.

One of the most under-rated contributors to football analytics, data presentation and the understanding of the different dynamics for individual players, was the video game, Pro Evolution Soccer (PES). It added long shooting perfectly into its gameplay.

Other games such as the popular Fifa and Football Manager titles also contributed in this area, but PES led the way.

Early editions of PES introduced player stats and attribute radars to the mainstream in 2004.

These are now commonly used, especially on social media and in articles, to display a player’s data output to give a quick idea of the kind of footballer they are.

A spike to the edge of the radar indicates a player excels in that particular area, while a point tucked into the middle of the radar means they have little impact in that area of the game.

PES also programmed player movement, technique and kinetics better than any previous football video game. This included a “middle shooting” attribute that gave players who boasted it a better chance of scoring from long shots.

It reflected real life, where some players have the combination of technique and power to score from distance.

Maybe Man City should have assembled all of their players with the middle shooting attribute around the edge of the Arsenal box as they struggled to break down their 10-man block last weekend.

There is a satisfaction in the physics of it all when a long shot is hit well. Whether on the volley, from a dead ball, or from a half-volley. Whether playing or watching.

These shots have greater expectations than others, or at least greater hope, and the hope is that they remain part of the game.