MELIN DRAFOD was established in Wales in 2021; its aim, from its website, is “to support, facilitate and be a critical friend to the grassroots Welsh independence movement.”

Also, it is “not affiliated to any political party but works across parties and groups, focusing on giving detailed attention to the questions raised by the rising support for independence.”

At the beginning of the year, Melin Drafod published Achieving an Independent Wales, a financial discussion paper on the viablity of the Welsh economy if independence were implemented in the near term.

It presents a strong critique of our contemporary situation in Wales and offers a strident socialist alternative. It’s a paper that openly asks for feedback to fully examine the economic question collectively:

“We need to be cognisant that we currently live in the hyper-capitalist context of contemporary Britain. We need to start changing that narrow discussion and start opening people’s eyes to the realities of a society where so many resources are privatised, rather than valuing the local, circular and foundational economies our communities need to succeed.”

The paper calls for:

• An equal nation — providing everyone with free basic services, including a home, and which distributes income and wealth much more equally;

• A peaceful nation — creating a society built on co-operation instead of conflict;

• One planet nation — rejecting the conventional capitalist precept of economic growth in order to tackle the climate crisis;

• An inclusive and participatory nation — creating an anti-racist, anti-sexist, anti-prejudice society with as many decisions as possible made directly by people, workers and local communities;

• A contented Welsh language nation — improving people’s well-being and happiness and restoring the Welsh language as the country’s own language (priod iaith);

• A welcoming nation — relaxing immigration borders to the maximum extent possible, a country that welcomes the contribution of people from around the world

On the crucial question of the fiscal gap, the difference between the money we need for public services and the money we can raise from the tax base, the paper leans heavily on the Doyle report commissioned by Plaid Cymru.

As the paper states: “It is often said that Wales’s fiscal situation is one of the biggest obstacles facing those trying to convince the public of the case for Welsh independence.”

The paper, therefore, inquires whether Wales could manage as an independent nation right now, without needing to make changes to reach that goal. It considers whether independence under current circumstances is feasible and examines how the nation might survive such a transition.

Although there are other possibilities to consider, such as the Communist Party-backed proposal of progressive federalism, where some redistribution within the British context could occur, either prior to or as an alternative to independence, the paper adopts Doyle’s own starting point which imagines a quick transition to independence with the status quo remaining in place.

As Melin Drafod’s paper notes, the size of the gap will depend on the terms of independence that can be negotiated. Those who argue that the gap will be huge take a pessimistic look, those who argue that the gap would be “normal,” compared to other capitalist economies, probably take an overly optimistic view.

But the following point is what those on the left within Wales, and those watching from the outside, need to consider most seriously.

If Wales’s fiscal gap were to be “normal,” as Doyle argues, we still face the normal capitalist conditions of underfunded public services, periodic crisis, austerity, inequality and hardship.

In response to this, the paper states that “…we cannot consider fiscal questions in a vacuum: not expressing our principles would be tantamount to supporting the cruel and failed neoliberal status quo.”

The weakness of this capitalist foundation for a new Wales is obviously an issue, but the paper’s post-independence “new social contract” vision is intended to address this.

The majority of proposals for the economy in this paper concern adjustments to tax on income and company profits. These are, of course, important but they only take us so far.

The Melin Drafod paper includes one of many proposals for a wealth tax, which would redistribute accumulated private fortunes. Most such proposals would operate on a windfall basis, on one-off occasions, and only apply to the extremely wealthy, of which there are relatively few in Wales.

One of the urgent priorities for the left and wider public in Wales is to firm up proposals for an annual wealth tax and build broad agreement about its scope and exemptions.

However, most of the resources of our society are at the disposal of companies rather than individuals. We, therefore, need mechanisms to:

 • Increase the amount of capital in public ownership
 • Increase the influence democratic forces can have over the use of capital in private ownership

Ultimately, it is inequality in the control and distribution of capital, or wealth, rather than income that is at the heart of the exploitative capitalist system.

It is through mechanisms to redistribute these that we can tackle the exploitation and place the resources of our society in the democratic control needed to ensure the delivery of the services we need.

Increases in public ownership feature in the paper, but further detailed elaboration of how we achieve this remains a priority for the left.  

The recent wage militancy and increasing sophistication of trade union demands across Britain suggest substantial common ground and shared vision among working-class activists within and without Wales.

Melin Drafod argues that “independence offers us an opportunity to break the capitalist cycle of crisis and accumulation.”

The real opportunity and challenge appear to be building popular unity, around shared socialist demands, among both those who do and those who do not see independence as part of the answer.

As Wales is already a devolved nation and as there is already a movement across parties and across campaign groups within Wales working towards a socialist future for our nation, it deserves the support of the wider left for those efforts — regardless of what the context of that future socialist Wales will look like.

Melin Drafod’s paper is a step forward and sets the tone in terms of how we can work collectively towards a socialist goal. It raises important and interesting questions — not just for Wales but for those of us seeking a socialist Britain in general.