SINCE the November US presidential election when Donald Trump swept the board there has been plenty of analysis and advice in the media and the left to the Democrats on how to react to their defeat and what caused it. 

There is no doubt Trump’s win is a body blow to US trade unions particularly after they mounted an impressive comeback in winning major disputes such as in the auto sector this year.

The scale of Trump’s win has been extensively analysed — including the votes in swing states, the voting patterns of Latino’s and black voters, of middle-aged men, of young men, of women and retirees.

But one area where the figures have not been subject to such detailed analysis (this side of the pond in any event) is how union members and union households voted.

Trump naturally claimed to have “won big” among union and non-unionised workers. He visited Detroit, speaking to his supporters and blamed the United Autoworkers (UAW) for accepting the introduction of electric vehicles but UAW backed “Union Joe” after Biden not only expressed his support for the UAW disputes with the Detroit Big 3 automakers but for went on the picket line during the dispute.

When Biden withdrew from the ballot the UAW switched to supporting Kamala Harris. 

The United Steelworkers, communication workers, unions in the movie and entertainment industry, the Service Employees Union, education unions, transit unions and many union districts and locals also lined up behind Harris. 

But now those unions who backed Harris are beginning to look to what the future holds under a Trump administration and many expect an attack on their unions.

The most reliable figures published publicly is that 18 per cent of voters were from union households and of these 54 per cent voted for Harris and 46 per cent for Trump. Conversely 82 per cent of voters were from non-union households and of these 51 per cent voted Trump and 47 per cent for Harris. 

So union support did make a difference — but union density in the vote was low and support for Harris may not have been in the States and districts where she needed votes. 

According to John Logan labour union historian at San Francisco State University says Democrats typically needed 60 per cent of the union vote to win presidential elections. The figures for Harris fell well short.

The other factor which appears not have have had a major impact but which angered some Democrats and unions is that a small number of unions failed to endorse Harris. 

The Teamsters Union did not endorse Harris but the union president did address the Republican convention. The International Association of Fire Fighters and the International Longshoremen’s Association (the East Coast dock workers union) also held back on endorsements.

Trump is unpredictable at the best of times but with the anti-union Elon Musk now in his inner circle and who is embroiled in a long running dispute with Swedish unions over collective bargaining at Tesla Trump is expected to undo many of the pro-worker and pro-union laws that Biden had introduced including changes to the system for unions to recruit and organise workers as they have been doing in Amazon, Google, Apple, Microsoft, the digi-tech industry including gaming, Chipotle restaurants and Starbucks. 

He will no doubt be encouraged to bring to a halt unions winning new high-profile contracts at companies including those in the auto sector, UPS, Boeing and in Hollywood film and TV studios. 

Trump is also likely to focus on firing Biden’s appointments to the National Labour Relations Board who laid the ground for a number of significant union organising campaigns and brought in laws to give more workers rights to overtime pay.

As one expert on US unions told me: “There is a danger that NLRB could become an anti union machine.”

He will look to limiting employment rights in the gig economy, weakening health and safety protections and it has been suggested he could go further and eliminate public-sector unions.

Also some local union members and officials weren’t convinced that Biden really was “Union Joe” and Harris was viewed with even more scepticism.

Many workers in manufacturing and traditional industries support Trump’s plans for America First, higher tariffs on imported goods such as Chinese EVs and support a clamp down on immigration. 

Reading the messages sent to their members US unions are preparing for the worst, battening down the hatches, promising defiance and a fight back if Trump enacts many of the things he said on the stump. 

It will take time for US unions to regroup and to work out strategies on how to deal with Trump and the right-wing circus that he is surrounding himself with. But they will work it out, they did the last time round — but it’s going to be a very rough ride.

Tony Burke is the Co chair of the Campaign For Trade Union Freedom