UNTIL recently, current events were held to pass into history at around the 30-year mark, which was when official government papers were released of that period.

In more recent times many documents have been opened up after 20 years, meaning that the early 2000s period of British history has now made its initial entry to the historical record.

In the 2001 general election, nearly a repeat of the result of 1997, Labour had a majority of 167. At the next election in 2005, Labour’s majority dropped to 66. Tony Blair was replaced by Gordon Brown as PM in 2006.

In between the two elections was the Iraq war. It was opposed by a significant number of Labour MPs and saw the biggest-ever protest march in British history on February 15 2003. It is interesting to note that by comparison, Blair didn’t have quite such an authoritarian focus as Keir Starmer, dissent was freely expressed inside Labour.

The Iraq war has become even more unpopular since and only a limited number of warmongers still think it was a good idea. The drop in Labour’s majority was undoubtedly due in large part to opposition to the war.

This focused on Muslim voters and saw George Galloway win Bethnal Green and Bow from Labour on an anti-war platform. The vote was far wider than that, however, and undoubtedly included those just fed up with the difference between Labour’s plan to create a new Britain and the limited progress that was made.

Fast forward to 2023 and the war on Gaza, with the recent historical context in mind. Labour HQ is reported as having checked the size of the Muslim electorate (which must be a very rough figure since you are not required to declare your religion or otherwise when registering to vote — rightly so) and concluded that only a few seats are at risk.

They have forgotten the case of Hornsey and Wood Green in north London in 2005.

The constituency has an excellent progressive mosque in Wightman Road, but not a particularly large Muslim electorate. It contains the areas of Muswell Hill and Crouch End which, while historically Tory, have been strongly identified with left-of-centre politics for the last 30 years, at least.

In 2005 the Labour MP was Barbara Roche, who had held the seat since 1992, defeating the late Tory incumbent Hugh Rossi. At the 2005 election, however, she fairly narrowly lost the seat to Lynne (now Baroness) Featherstone, the Lib Dem candidate.

She held the seat until 2015 when the current Labour MP, Catherine West, was elected. The Lib Dems’ 2005 victory was not due to a mass surge of support specifically for the Lib Dems, nor due to a big Muslim vote, because it did not exist, but largely due to many voters in the area strongly disagreeing with Blair over Iraq.

In 2023 we find another Labour leader, Starmer, supporting a war, this time in Gaza — a war that is not popular with the public: polls suggest around three-quarters of the public want a lasting ceasefire.

Starmer is flat-footed as a leader compared to Blair and doesn’t have a large majority to lose since he is in opposition.

It’s unlikely, particularly given the current debacle of an ever-more right-wing and incompetent Tory government, that Labour will lose a 2024 election which is just as well, despite Starmer.

The lesson of 2005 and what followed is that in supporting an unpopular and murderous war, Starmer is doing very significant damage to his chances of hanging around as Labour leader and PM. Blair’s departure underlines the point.

Keith Flett is a socialist historian. Follow him on X @kmflett.