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AFTER one of the most competitive first three days of a Cheltenham Festival I can ever remember, we now come down to the big one: the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The big change from the first three days is likely to be the downturn in the weather and therefore the likely going. At the time of writing yesterday morning the weather forecast suggests we could get up to 10mm of rain from about 6pm overnight to this morning when a mainly dry day is forecast.

That, at an educated guess, suggests we could be racing on good to soft and soft in places on the New Course, which will hopefully ensure that in a well run Gold Cup we will get a real and thorough test of stamina.

The top of the market is very congested and the rain forecast will certainly be music to the ears of Willie Mullins for his sole entry in the race, Gaelic Warrior. Formerly beaten in a Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at this meeting off a mark of 129 (how did he lose that?) his best run over a distance in excess of three miles came in last year’s Grade One Golden Miller Gold Cup Chase at Aintree, when after a protracted battle he saw off one of his rivals this afternoon Grey Dawning by three lengths. The big question is, will he get up the hill over the extra two and a half furlongs?

Grey Dawning has had a much lighter and easier campaign this time around and his defeat in the Cotswold Chase can be put down to the lack of pace in the race and could well have been the perfect prep with Harry Skelton looking after his charge.

There is sure to be a strong pace up front so there will be no hiding place for any of the runners and it is the likely spearhead HAITI COULEURS (4.00) that I expect to run his field ragged and make all the running.

He wasn’t right physically when behind Grey Dawning at Haydock Park in the Lancashire Chase, but he has twice put that defeat behind him with convincing wins in the Welsh National off top weight and a mark of 154, when given a peach of a ride by Sean Bowen, and then with another front running display when swatting away the challenge of L’Homme Presse in the Denman Chase at Newbury.

Of the remaining runners, last year’s Arkle winner, Jango Baie, is a huge danger if getting home and I expect him to reverse recent King George form with The Jukebox Man, while Firefox is another unexposed over this trip and could easily hit the frame if taking another step forward from his good run in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown.

In the finale, the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, I can see outsider SAINTE LUCIE (5.20) running a huge race on her first attempt in excess of two miles, while the opening Triumph Hurdle may go to another mare, SELMA DE VARY (1.20). She ran a cracking race on her Irish debut behind the former ante-post favourite for this race Narciso Has and her weight allowance is a massive plus. 

In the handicaps, GIBBS ISLAND (2.00) could go well at a massive price in the County Hurdle, while FRUIT DE MER (3.20) is the each-way call in the Spa Novices’ Hurdle.