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WITH a dry day forecast for this afternoon after all the recent rain, the ground is likely to be very gluey with the turf having been opened up as well, so today is a card to tread carefully with. Still, I expect the feature event, the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30), to go the way of the long time favourite EL FABIOLO.

Many have questioned his jumping at times, and although Edwardstone is sure to set the pace here, I am sure that both Alan King and Tom Cannon will be very wary about going too quickly which will put less emphasis on jumping accuracy. The selection is the class act here and will be better suited to this testing surface more than his arch-rival, according to the marketplace, Jonbon.

If you delve deeper into the form on the rest of the card, there are certainly plenty of heavy ground specialists, none more so than COKO BEACH in the Cross Country Chase at 4.10. At his peak he hasn’t delivered at the top table as much as Delta Work, Minella Indo and Galvin have, but he is still only nine and at the top of his game, whereas his rivals are all on the downgrade and, most important of all, will not be suited by further rain, whereas Coko will absolutely relish these conditions.

The going will turn the normal speed test of the Grand Annual Chase (4.50) into a real grind with plenty of the declared field suited by being at the sharp end, and that plays even more into the hands of my big fancy LIBBERTY HUNTER. He bounded up the hill from off the pace last time out and being so lightly raced has a further step forward in him. The likes of Hardy De Seuil and Unexpected Party could be his biggest rivals.

The opening Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle (1.30) should be at the mercy of Ballyburn and following his easy win over Slade Steel last time out, he is by far the most likely winner, but I am never prepared to back a horse at odds-on at this festival so the alternative is an each-way play on his stable mate MERCUREY 
(nap) who looks an out and out stayer in the making.

The big betting race of the day is the Handicap Hurdle at 2.50 which could see the well-backed BUILT BY BALLYMORE be backed in even further. Deep ground is imperative for him and now that the rains have come he could easily go off at 3/1 market leader (is available at 8/1 as I pen this piece). The likes of Sa Majeste and Shanbally Kid should also make their presence felt.

In the mud I prefer STAY AWAY FAY to see off American Mike in the Broadway Novices’ Chase at 2.10, while YOU OUGHTA KNOW is only a tentative selection in the bumper at 5.30.