IT ALL hinged on a blunder as Chinese player Ding Liren beat Hikaru Nakamura of the United States in the 14th and final round of chess’s Candidates tournament in Madrid on Monday night.

It was great stroke of luck for Ding who, after a very poor start to the tournament, made an amazing comeback in the second half and with this win over his direct rival clinched second place with eight points from 14 — a draw would have been enough for Nakamura to keep his second spot. 

Usually, second might as well be nowhere in this game of winners and losers, but it is hugely significant if Norwegian world champion Magnus Carlsen decides not to defend his title in the world championship clash pencilled in for early next year. In that case, he will be replaced by Ding.

The five-time champ beat Russian challenger Ian Nepomniachtchi easily in the 2021 World Chess Championship. But seemingly bored or unmotivated, declared  that “if someone other than [Alireza] Firouzja wins the Candidates tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match.”

Firouzja left the Iranian Chess Federation in 2019 as he had been prohibited from competing with Israeli players and played under the International Chess Federation (Fide) flag until he became a French citizen in 2021. Still just 19, he finished on Monday well down the field in sixth place, leaving Carlsen with a dilemma.

In terms of results, the final round did not matter for Nepomniachtchi, who had secured victory in the tournament with a draw in round 13 and another shot at the world title. He has been playing under the Fide flag after the federation’s suspension of the Russian and Belarusian teams from international competition because of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. 

In fact, Ding was only squeezed into this year’s Candidates when another Russian, Crimean-born Sergey Karjakin, spoke out in support of the invasion and was suspended by Fide.

So Carlsen, who has dominated the game for a decade, appears to be facing a quandary: can he motivate himself enough to prepare and train for what could be a gruelling battle with the new improved Nepomniachtchi?

Or perhaps his reticence is a play for a higher purse? There’s precedent: Bobby Fischer refused to go to Reykjavik to play Boris Spassky in 1972 until chess-loving moneybags Jim Slater stepped in and doubled the prize money.

Carlsen may be open to persuasion: he visited Madrid on Sunday and met Fide president Arkady Dvorkovich and director-general Emil Sutovsky for almost an hour. Sutovsky commented: “I think it was very constructive and left hope that it can work.”

But chess fans are left wondering: who’s next for Nepomniachtchi? Will it be Carlsen or Ding?