
THE world is on track to add nearly two months of dangerous “super hot” days each year by the end of the century, with poorer small nations hit far more often than the biggest carbon-polluting countries, a study released today found.
But efforts to curb emissions of heat-trapping gases that started 10 years ago with the Paris climate agreement have had a significant effect.
Without them Earth would be heading to an additional 114 days a year of those deadly extra hot days, the same study found.
The international collection of climate scientists World Weather Attribution and the United States-based Climate Central teamed up to use computer simulations to calculate just how much of a difference the landmark accord has made in terms of one of the biggest climate effects on people: heatwaves.
The report calculated how many super hot days the world and more than 200 countries got in 2015, how many Earth gets now and what’s projected in two future scenarios.
The study defines super hot days for each location as days that are warmer than 90 per cent of the comparable dates between 1991 and 2020.
One scenario is if countries fulfil their promises to curb emissions by the year 2100, the world will warm 2.6°C above pre-industrial times.
That adds 57 super hot days to what Earth gets now, according to the study.
The other scenario is the 4°C of warming that the world had been on track to hit before the Paris agreement. The study found that would double the number of additional hot days.
Co-author of the report, Climate Central vice-president for Science Kristina Dahl said: “There will be pain and suffering because of climate change.
“But if you look at this difference between 4°C of warming and 2.6°C of warming, that reflects the last 10 years and the ambitions that people have put forth. And to me, that’s encouraging.”
Since 2015, the world has already added 11 super hot days on average, the report said.
“That heat sends people to the emergency room. Heat kills people,” Ms Dahl said.
The report doesn’t say how many people will be affected by the additional dangerously hot days, but co-author Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said that “it will definitely be tens of thousands or millions, not less.”
She noted that thousands of people already die in heatwaves each year.