
THE radical return to protectionism is not only possible but necessary for an empire facing an undeniable decline. It has been denounced by critical analysts but certified by leading intellectuals of the US Establishment, such as Zbigniew Brzezinski in a 2012 text and, subsequently, by several documents of the Rand Corporation.
Decline, or dissolution, if you prefer, came hand in hand with critical domestic factors: the slow growth of the economy, the loss of competitiveness in global markets, and the gigantic indebtedness of the federal government. If in 1980 the US federal government’s debt-to-GDP ratio was 34.54 per cent, today it has reached an astronomical level of 122.55 per cent. To this must be added the intractable balance of the trade deficit, which continues to grow and in 2024 amounted to $131.4 billion, representing roughly 3.5 per cent of the GDP. This is the case because the US consumes more than it produces.
To this constellation of domestic factors of imperial weakening should be added the deterioration of democratic legitimacy. The latter was highlighted by the January 6 2021 assault on the Capitol and by the more recent widespread pardons granted by Trump in favour of some 1,500 attackers who had been convicted by the US judiciary. Instead of bipartisan consensus, today, there is a huge rift undermining the political system, of which Trumpism is but one expression.