ALL through 2023 the conflict in Ukraine has been drifting towards deadlock. As the year draws to a close the military positions remain very much where they were at its start.

The much-hyped Ukrainian spring-summer offensive has made little difference beyond the waste of further lives and resources. That will not have surprised many military authorities, who pointed out that Ukraine’s armed forces lacked the margin of superiority generally needed for a successful offensive.

While the Russian army’s defensive performance has clearly improved on the blundering that marked the first months after the invasion of February 2022, neither does it display any great offensive capacity.